Crowley Lake California Weather Forecast Discussion

647
FXUS65 KREV 080853
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
153 AM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Temperatures warm up through Thursday with mostly sunny to
  partly cloudy skies.
* Winds increase from the southwest each day through Friday.
* A storm system arrives by the end of the week, bringing cooler
  temperatures and chances for rain and mountain snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A weak high pressure area remains over the area through this
evening. This will keep the warm trend going through tomorrow
afternoon as the high is pushed east by the approach of the next
upper level trough from the PacNW. Temperatures in the next 2 days
will be in the mid to upper 70s western NV and NE CA, while Sierra
communities will be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds increase as
the upper ridge is slowly pushed away. Gusts today will be in the
20-30 mph range and by Thursday they will be in the 20-35 mph
range, especially south of US-50. Some areas south of US-50 may
have elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Thursday
due to the higher wind speeds and low relative humidity.
The long wave upper level trough will arrive on Friday, and will
push a series of shortwaves through the weekend into next week.
The first shortwave passes Friday into Saturday bringing stronger
winds on Friday afternoon, rain and snow chances above 7 kft in
the Sierra, and cooler temperatures. The tightening of the
pressure gradient will lead to gusts between 30-40 mph Friday
afternoon in the valleys, higher gusts in the mountains. Chances
of gusts greater than 35 mph are in the 60-80%. It will be a kind
of wet weekend if you are in the northern Sierra and NE CA with a
40-60% chance of seeing wetting rain. Otherwise, it will be mostly
very light and spotty rain for western NV. Not expecting much in
terms of thunderstorms as chances across the majority of the area
are below 10%. Snow levels drop to 7 kft with the cooler air
intrusion. So, some light mountain snow/flurries are likely this
weekend over the Sierra crest and passes. Not expecting
significant accumulations, as the probability of exceeding one
inch of snow is 10-20%. Temperatures will drop considerably this
weekend too. Afternoon highs will be 10-20 degrees below average.
By Sunday morning, many places across western NV valleys may be
flirting with freezing temperatures.
Next week, we remain under the longwave trough, but the land of
uncertainty returns as the next shortwave is depicted differently
with every model with respect to its timing and position. Anyway,
the current trend that we can perceive at the moment is cooler
temperatures with breezy afternoons, and low to moderate chances
of valley rain and mountain snow. How much rain and snow is also
tbd, but the current trend hints at light accumulations, except
near the Sierra crest.
-HC
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue through Thursday with mostly clear skies.
Winds will be generally light from the south and southwest, but
increase between 20-03Z to 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. KTRK
remains the exception between 10z-16z due to patchy FZFG.
Afternoon wind gusts increase again tomorrow, but peak on Friday.
-HC
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion