Crystal Falls, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

506
FXUS63 KMQT 110508
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
108 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog are possible across the U.P. through
  Thursday morning.
- High temps mainly in the 60s and 70s expected for the
  remainder of this week.
- Drier weather after today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Isolated to scattered rain showers continue to taper off across the
area this afternoon as an upper level disturbance passes south into
the Lower Michigan. The combination of abundant low level moisture
from recent rainfall and lighter winds across the area has given way
to patchy fog across much of the U.P. and Lake Superior today.
Observations from around the area show visibilities generally above
4 miles for the most part, but have seen some localized areas
dipping down below a mile or even a quarter mile at times along the
Hwy 41 corridor in Marquette County this afternoon. Fog will remain
a concern going into the overnight hours, particularly across the
western half as the near surface environment remains conducive and
subsidence begins to increase as high pressure builds in from the
west. Will continue to monitor observational trends this evening and
overnight for the need for a Dense Fog Advisory. Thinking lows will
only drop down into the mid 50s in most locations tonight as ridging
starts to build in and abundant cloud cover remains overhead.
Thursday looks to be a dry day as high pressure continues to build
over the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. As a result, expect
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 60s and perhaps 70
degrees in a few locations, with the coolest temperatures found
along the Lake Superior shoreline.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The warming trend continues into Friday as 850 mb temps increase to
10-12 C over the region, corresponding to daytime highs in the low
to mid 70s across much of the U.P. Dry weather looks to hang on
through the daytime hours, with a weak clipper system moving over
top of upstream ridge arriving Friday evening and bringing a shot of
light rain from west to east Friday night into Saturday morning. Do
not expect much precip given the weak nature of the system and
relative lack of moisture, with model QPF keeping all areas below a
quarter inch through Saturday morning. Can`t rule out a few rumbles
of thunder to accompany this system, but do not expect any strong
thunderstorms given modest instability. The clipper will have a
negligible impact on temperatures as the upper level ridge quickly
becomes re-established overhead, keeping highs in the 70s through
the weekend and into the early part of next week.
WPC ensemble clusters show good agreement in maintaining upper level
ridging over the region through the first half of next week as the
ridge axis slowly shifts eastward towards northern Ontario. The
position of the ridge axis will be critical, as a farther east
solution would potentially allow embedded shortwave disturbances to
brush the area and bring periods of showers or thunderstorms during
the first half of the week. This is reflected by NBM PoPs which keep
a 15-30% chance of precipitation across the area Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Flight restrictions to persist through this morning at all TAF sites
due to lingering low level moisture. LIFR will be the predominant
flight category with airport mins at times before daybreak. Gradual
improvement will commence around mid-morning with slow improvement
to MVFR. Fog and low stratus will break out to VFR during the late
morning to early afternoon. Light winds and VFR skies are expected
through the rest of the afternoon. Patchy dense fog is possible once
again tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Light winds of generally 10-15 kt or less expected through the
period as high pressure builds over the region. Available
observations show areas of fog persisting over the western half of
Lake Superior today. The Dense Fog Advisory has thus been extended
through Thursday afternoon as conditions will remain conducive to
fog formation. Patchy fog may also expand to the eastern half of the
lake and northern parts of Lake Michigan tonight into Thursday
morning. A weak clipper will bring some light rain and potentially a
few thunderstorms to the area Friday night into Saturday morning.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for LSZ162-240>244-263-264.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...CB

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion