Cundiyo, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

694
FXUS65 KABQ 211809
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1209 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will move across western
  and central New Mexico Monday. Some of this activity may produce
  strong outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall.
- A backdoor cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to
  northeast New Mexico Tuesday then to all of eastern New Mexico
  on Wednesday.
- We have increasing forecast confidence that a Pacific system
  will approach from the west toward the end of the work week,
  bringing improved chances for showers and storms from Friday
  through the weekend. This scenario would lead to an increasing
  risk for burn scar flash flooding going into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The upper high over northern MX is extending a ridge axis over NM
today, with a dry atmosphere persisting and little to no chance
for convection. The exception this afternoon will be across the
southwest mountains, where sufficient moisture resides to support
isolated late day showers and storms. The latest water vapor
satellite imagery shows a slug of Pacific moisture transporting
northeast from the Baja across AZ in between a Pacific low
offshore of SoCal and the upper high over northern MX. This slug
of moisture will move into western NM tonight and across the are
Monday, bringing PWATs to above the 90th percentile. However, the
timing of the moisture advection will create multiple cloud layers
overnight and limit surface heating Monday, which will limit
instability and favor showers and areas of rain vs thunderstorms.
That said, we do expect some storms during the afternoon hours.
There is only a low threat for burn scar flash flooding Monday
given fast storm motion and limited instability. An upper level
low will drop southeast from the Great Basin toward the southern
Rockies late Monday and push a cold front through the area Monday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The backdoor portion of the front will be reinforced Tuesday as
the upper low ejects east into the southern/central US plains,
bringing a notably cooler airmass into eastern NM. Highs on
Tuesday will generally be 5-15 degrees cooler across eastern NM
relative to Monday`s. Gusty northerly winds will prevail behind
the backdoor front across the northeast and east central plains on
Tuesday, but speeds will remain below advisory threshold. Our low
temperature forecast for Wednesday morning may not be cold
enough, given winds decreasing behind the back door front and
skies clearing. The upper level low will move further east away
from the southern Rockies on Wednesday as a ridge builds over the
Desert SW and Great Basin. Wednesday is looking like a beautiful
early fall day across the area, with high temperatures generally
5-10 degrees below average across eastern NM and within a few
degrees of average across western NM.
A Pacific low is still forecast to approach NM late in the week,
then take a jog south toward the Bootheel late in the weekend. The
upper low will bring moisture north from MX beginning Friday,
with PWATs continuing an upward trend into the weekend. We have
increasing forecast confidence in this scenario given good
agreement among the 12Z medium range model solutions and some
solid run-to-run consistency. This setup will bring good chances
for showers and storms to western and central NM, but with an
increasing risk for burn scar flash flooding. Our PoPs will likely
continue to trend up for the Friday through Sunday period given
continued model run-to-run consistency. Daytime temperatures will
trend down over the weekend due to cloud cover and rain-cooling
of the lower boundary layer.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, except for MVFR conditions in showers across western NM
Monday morning. Expect the development and gradual lowering of VFR
cigs overnight into Monday as a slug of Pacific moisture moves
east into NM from AZ. Winds will generally be light.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. A slug of Pacific moisture will move east
into NM tonight through Monday, bringing increased humidity and
chances for wetting rain that will focus across central and
western areas. A backdoor cold front will move down the eastern
plains Tuesday and spread west into central NM Wednesday, bringing
temperatures down to below average. A Pacific system will
approach toward the end of the week, bringing increased humidity
and improved chances for wetting rain from Friday through the
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  74  51  78 /  20  30  10  10
Dulce...........................  42  71  38  73 /  20  30  10  10
Cuba............................  50  70  45  74 /  20  50  10  10
Gallup..........................  52  71  46  77 /  30  60  10  10
El Morro........................  51  71  47  75 /  30  50  10  10
Grants..........................  51  74  46  78 /  20  60  10  10
Quemado.........................  51  75  49  77 /  20  50  20  10
Magdalena.......................  56  78  54  77 /  10  50  20  20
Datil...........................  51  75  49  76 /  20  60  30  20
Reserve.........................  51  82  49  83 /  20  50  20  20
Glenwood........................  56  86  55  88 /  20  40  20  20
Chama...........................  43  66  39  67 /  10  40  20  20
Los Alamos......................  54  71  49  73 /   5  50  10  10
Pecos...........................  51  74  47  74 /   0  30  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  48  70  43  69 /   0  30  20  20
Red River.......................  41  61  36  59 /   5  50  20  30
Angel Fire......................  35  67  32  65 /   0  30  10  30
Taos............................  46  73  41  73 /   0  30  10  10
Mora............................  46  72  42  70 /   0  30  10  20
Espanola........................  51  77  47  79 /   5  40  10  10
Santa Fe........................  55  74  50  75 /   0  30  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  52  76  48  78 /   5  30  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  77  58  80 /   5  30  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  79  56  82 /   5  30  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  79  55  84 /  10  30  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  79  55  83 /   5  30  10  10
Belen...........................  56  84  54  85 /  10  40  20  10
Bernalillo......................  57  79  54  83 /   5  30  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  55  82  52  84 /  10  30  10  10
Corrales........................  59  80  54  84 /   5  30  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  56  83  54  84 /  10  30  20  10
Placitas........................  59  77  54  79 /   5  30  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  59  79  54  82 /   5  30  10  10
Socorro.........................  61  87  57  86 /  10  40  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  74  49  75 /   5  30  10  10
Tijeras.........................  56  76  51  77 /   5  30  20  10
Edgewood........................  51  77  46  77 /   0  20  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  79  45  79 /   0  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  53  76  49  74 /   0  20  20  10
Mountainair.....................  53  78  50  78 /   0  30  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  54  80  50  78 /   0  30  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  59  84  57  82 /   0  20  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  55  77  54  74 /   0  20  30  20
Capulin.........................  48  77  46  65 /   0  20  20  30
Raton...........................  47  79  46  70 /   0  20  20  30
Springer........................  47  81  46  73 /   0  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  50  77  46  72 /   0  20  10  10
Clayton.........................  56  85  54  70 /   0  10  20  10
Roy.............................  51  82  49  73 /   0  10  10  10
Conchas.........................  54  90  56  81 /   0  10  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  54  88  55  80 /   0  20  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  54  90  54  80 /   0   5  20  10
Clovis..........................  60  91  61  82 /   0   5  20  10
Portales........................  59  93  61  84 /   0   5  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  57  91  59  83 /   0  10  20  10
Roswell.........................  61  95  64  89 /   0   5  20  10
Picacho.........................  58  88  59  83 /   0  20  20  10
Elk.............................  56  85  57  80 /   0  20  10  20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion