Cuyapaipe Indian Reservation California Weather Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS66 KSGX 110950
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
250 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Residual moisture from Priscilla will continue to bring light
showers to portions of San Diego and Riverside Counties this
morning. By mid-morning the showers will move to the northeast and
clouds will decrease through the afternoon. Cooler with drying
and a return of the marine layer for the next two days. For
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a low pressure system moving
southward along the West Coast will bring a chance of showers from
the coast to the mountains, along with stronger westerly winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
This morning...The upper level circulation from Priscilla is no
longer discernible as it has been absorbed in the southwest flow
between the low over WA/OR and the high near the MX/TX border. The
bulk of the moisture from Priscilla is well to the east of SoCal
but some residual moisture will continue to bring a few light
showers to portions of San Diego and Riverside Counties through
about mid-morning. Any further accumulations are not expected to
exceed one tenth inch. Drier air from the northwest will bring
fair and locally breezy conditions to SoCal for this afternoon
through Monday as the low over WA/OR moves inland becoming an open
wave over the Rockies by Sunday. The westerly winds will be
strongest this afternoon, with the wind-prone locations of the
mtns and deserts likely to see wind gusts of 35-40 mph.
Fair and mild conditions will prevail through Monday as broad low
pressure troughing covers the western US, although temperatures
will remain several degrees below seasonal averages. The marine
layer low clouds and fog will return to the coastal areas and
valleys during the nights and mornings.
A reinforcing shortwave trough moving south out of western Canada
on the upstream side of the mean trough will form a closed upper
low over the WA coast by Sunday night. Numerical model solutions
are coming into better agreement through Wed and project the
upper low to move into central CA late Tue before moving eastward
into NV/UT by Wed. This system will bring colder air from the
north along with stronger westerly winds and chances for precipitation
Tue-Wed. Showers could move in from the northwest as early as Tue
morning and continue into Wed morning. Forecast details are still
somewhat uncertain but current rainfall estimates are for a few
hundredths of an inch over San Diego County to nearly an inch over
the western portions of the San Bernardino Mountains. The lower
deserts are likely to be rain-shadowed which is common for early
season systems moving in from the northwest with limited moisture,
most of which will have been rained out before the system reaches
SoCal. A dusting of snow is possible in wilderness areas of the
San Bernardino Mountains above resort levels. Showers should end
by mid-day Wed as the system moves inland. Tue and Wed will likely
be the coolest days with daytime temperatures as much as 15-20
degrees below normal for inland areas. The low deserts could be up
to 10 degrees below normal. Winds will peak Mon night/Tue morning,
with the wind-prone locations of the mtns and deserts potentially
seeing wind gusts of 50-55 mph.
Fair and gradually warmer towards the end of next week as the
system moves off to the east and high pressure expands eastward
over the west coast. Saturday will likely be the warmest day with
daytime temps still as much as 5-9 degrees below normal in the
inland valleys. The marine layer could return with low clouds and
fog for the coastal areas and valleys during the nights and
mornings.
&&
.AVIATION...
110905Z....Coasts/Valleys...ISO -SHRA over San Diego County will
taper off by 11Z. Low clouds 1200-1500 ft MSL are likely (70%
chance) to form towards 12Z in parts of coastal San Diego County and
northwest Orange. These will be patchy and have a moderate chance
(40%) of impacting KSAN/KCRQ. Low clouds clearing 15-17Z, followed
by VFR conditions and mostly clear skies through the evening. Patchy
low clouds 1400-1800 ft MSL reform after 02Z Sun, with low to
moderate chances of impacting coastal sites (20-40% chance).
Mountains/Deserts...ISO -SHRA over San Diego County will taper off
by 11Z. VFR conditions and mostly clear skies through period. Breezy
west winds gusting 20-30 kts along desert foothills, high desert,
and typically windy spots in low desert 18-05Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate northwest winds in the outer coastal waters will lead to
wind gusts occasionally exceeding 20 knots around San Clemente
Island this afternoon and evening. No hazardous marine conditions
are expected through Monday. Increasing south to southwest winds
expected by Tuesday as another weather system approaches the area.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP

NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion