Cypress Ridge, California Weather Forecast Discussion

940
FXUS66 KLOX 252019
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
119 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...25/245 AM.
A cutoff trough of low pressure off the Central California coast will
wobble back to south through tonight. A cooling trend is expected
through the weekend as the trough will linger over the area for
several days. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue
into next week. A deep marine intrusion will make low clouds and
fog a staple of the forecast with the possibility of night through
morning drizzle. Clouds may struggle to clear from the beaches
each day. Showers chances will continue across the interior
portions of the area and over the mountains and desert.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...25/118 PM.
Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period.
Main feature of note will be an upper low. All models move this
feature across Central CA tonight then drop it over the
southeastern deserts Friday and it spins over that area through
Sunday.
Forecast-wise, main issue in the short term will be shower and
thunderstorm potential as moisture/instability wrap around the
upper low. Through this evening, there will continue to be a
chance of some showers/thunderstorms across interior sections of
SLO/SBA/Ventura counties as the low begins to move to the
southeast. For Friday, models and their respective ensembles are
not picking up on too much activity. However, given the developing
situation, will include slight chance POPs Friday afternoon for
the eastern San Gabriel mountains.
On Saturday, things look to get much more interesting. Models
wrap around some decent moisture and instability across the area,
basically from eastern Santa Barbara county down to Los Angeles
county. So, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for all of Ventura/LA counties as well as eastern Santa Barbara
county and all the adjacent coastal waters. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, localized
flooding, abundant lightning, hail and strong/erratic outflow
winds. Current SPC Outlook has this area in general thunderstorm
risk for Saturday and WPC has part of the area in a Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall.
On Sunday, the low will begin to move slowly eastward into
Arizona. So, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will diminish
greatly. However, there will still be enough moisture/instability
to warrant a slight chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms over
the higher elevations of SBA/Ventura/LA counties.
Other than the above convective issues, no major concerns are
expected. An increase in northerly offshore gradients will
generate some low-end advisory-level Sundowner winds across the
western Santa Ynez Range tonight and a WIND ADVISORY remains in
effect. The marine layer stratus should remain through the weekend
with low clouds pushing well inland each night. However, there is
a chance the marine layer clouds could be disrupted by the
convective activity, especially Saturday night.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...25/118 PM.
For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement through the period. On Monday/Tuesday, a rather vigorous
front will roll across northern/central California, bringing
significant early season rainfall to those areas. For our "neck
of the wood," the tail end of this system will graze San Luis
Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. So, there will a 20-30% chance
of light rain Monday night through Tuesday night from Santa
Barbara county northward with dry conditions expected for Ventura
and LA counties. Dry conditions are expected for the balance of
the day on Wednesday and Thursday.
With the above pattern, a cooling trend can be expected Monday and
Tuesday with plenty of night/morning clouds and fog and good
onshore gradients. For Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will
begin to rebound slightly, but still remain below seasonal
normals.
&&
.AVIATION...25/1934Z.
At 1837Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 2400 feet with a temperature of 20 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Timing of flight
cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, and conditions may be off
by 1 flight category than forecast at times. There is a 40% chance
of lowest cond restrictions falling to MVFR (not LIFR) at all
sites (except KPMD/KWJF).
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance
of minimal clearing today with only a couple hours or less of VFR
conds. There is a 40% chance of Bkn005 conds at worst. There is a
20% chance of an east wind component of 8 kt between 12Z-17Z Fri.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in forecast. There is a 30% chance of
Bkn005 conds overnight, with a 10% of Bkn003 conds.
&&
.MARINE...25/1254 PM.
For all the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest
winds are expected this afternoon into early Friday morning. Seas
will build, peaking at around 7 to 9 feet on Friday.
Across the inner waters north of Point Sal and the Santa Barbara
Channel, SCA winds are likely this afternoon into evening. The
strongest winds are likely near Point Conception and San Miguel
Island. Otherwise, there is a small chance (20 percent) of local
SCA gusts across the San Pedro Channel this afternoon.
This weekend into early next week, southerly swell up to 5 to 7
feet is likely to impact the coastal waters, especially south of
the Channel Islands.
&&
.BEACHES...25/1254 PM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will develop across the
coastal waters this weekend into early next week, generated by
Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents and elevated surf are
likely for south-facing beaches, especially across Los Angeles
and Ventura Counties. Additionally, particularly vulnerable
south- facing beaches may see some low-to-modearte coastal
flooding impacts. A High Surf Advisory and a Coastal Flood
Advisory may be needed for the peak of the event (Sunday through
Tuesday).
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Schoenfeld/Lund
BEACHES...Hall/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Hall
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion