Dammeron Valley Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

990
FXUS65 KSLC 142143
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
343 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather expected through midweek as a cool
and moist Pacific system moves through. Drier conditions return by
Friday along with gradually warming temperatures. Models then
continue to show potential for another system early next week, but
uncertainty remains high at this point.
&&
Key Points:
- A moist Pacific system will result in unsettled weather through
midweek. Rain and high elevation snow chances increase through
Tuesday evening, with widespread precipitation expected through
Wednesday. Showers will then linger across northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming through Thursday.
- Pacific system will be accompanied by colder air which will also
settle in through midweek. This will result in potential for locally
freezing temperatures in some locations Thursday and/or Friday
morning, with some uncertainty noted due to cloud cover.
- Roughly 80% of ensemble members show potential for another cool
Pacific system in impact the region by early next week, though
uncertainty is noted in specific details at this time.
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor loop shows a large scale cutoff low
pressure system slowly progressing inland from the Pacific coast.
While a brief lull has been noted from the overnight/morning
activity, will see ongoing activity continue to become more
widespread as the system approaches. Otherwise, primary
observation of note is the strong winds across the area due to the
stronger low level southwesterly flow. Widespread wind gusts in
the 25-45 mph range have been observed, and best potential to see
gusts at/above 45 mph appears to still be portions of southwest
Utah. As such, thinking the current Wind Advisory area looks good
as-is, and will maintain it as such into the evening.
On the forecast side of things, as mentioned expect activity to
increase moving into the evening and onward as the system and an
associated front approach. On the warmer side of the system,
instability will allow for more convective potential in
precipitation. Given storms should be moving fairly quick (likely
30 kts or greater), overall excessive rainfall potential is
somewhat mitigated, but anything with sufficient rates that gets
over a rain sensitive basin will carry at least some threat of
localized flash flooding.
Overnight into early Wednesday a somewhat diffuse baroclinic zone
(at least in comparison to the weekend`s front) will push in from
the west and then continue to progress eastward throughout the
day. Anticipate this boundary to serve as something of a focus for
more widespread shower activity, with widespread scattered
showers then lingering across the northern half of Utah and
southwest Wyoming as the core of the cutoff low gradually shifts
in. This will more or less remain the case Thursday (albeit with
slightly less widespread showers), with some potential noted for a
period of lake enhanced showers Thursday morning as well.
Water totals continue to look solid for the course of the event.
25th percentile water amounts across northern Utah are roughly in
the 0.25" to 1.00" range, and 75th percentile amounts increase
more into the 0.75" to 1.75" range. Given a smaller period of
precip potential across southwest Utah are a bit lower, with
25th-75th percentile amounts around 0.20"-0.80" or so.
Additionally, with the cold air associated with the low, snow
levels initially above 9500 ft will drop to as low as 6500 ft or
so by Thursday morning. Strong precip rates could drive that a bit
lower too, though think flakes mixing down to valley floors or
benches is unlikely this time. Still, higher elevations will see
some modest accumulations, with the Upper Cottonwoods and high
Uintas seeing around a 40-60% chance of greater than 4". Locally,
would not be surprised for some favored areas to push near 8". For
now amounts come in a bit shy of need for any advisory issuance
in the Uintas (especially given the longer duration of the event),
but those planning some travel through high elevation areas
should be prepared for potential to see snow.
With the cold air associated with the system, temperatures will
drop to around 10-15 degrees below normal. Thursday and Friday
morning continue to look to be the coldest, with potential to see
some localized areas of near freezing temperatures across Utah (in
regards to lower elevation places that haven`t experienced one
yet). Cloud cover continues to be a question, and if lingering
cloud cover is too expansive it may prevent effective radiational
cooling and temperatures from falling as substantially. All the
same, be sure to keep an eye on forecast temperatures for your
specific area if you have any cold sensitive vegetation to tend
to.
High pressure becomes the primary influence on the weather from
Friday on into the weekend. Along with drier conditions, afternoon
highs will gradually warm back near to a bit above normal by
Sunday. Models then continue to advertise potential for another
system early next week (~80% of ensemble members), with some
models depicting this system to be more robust and colder than the
midweek one. The spread in potential H7 temps is more minimal
across northern Utah compared to southern, indicating at least
higher confidence in some sort of cooldown across the north
accordingly. Current gridded forecast would actually suggest
potential for northern mountain advisories (NBM carries around
30-50% of 8+") and some measurable mountain valley snow with
levels dropping as low as around 5500 ft... But for now would
advise to monitor trends rather than latch onto the current
deterministic forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will last
much of the TAF period, with some capable moderate to heavy rain.
VFR conditions will prevail with dry conditions, with MVFR
conditions with stronger showers or thunderstorms. Winds will be
relatively light, but with varying directions with showers and
thunderstorms. South winds are likely after 18Z, with gusts around
25 knots.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms through 18Z will be capable of locally moderate or
heavy rain. Showers and thunderstorms will track from south to north
for the afternoon, bringing rain to southwest Wyoming and northern
Utah with largely dry conditions further south. VFR conditions will
prevail, but MVFR conditions are likely with stronger showers and
thunderstorms. Winds will be relatively light and variable based on
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A broad cool and moist system will push into
the region Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. As it does
so, precipitation chances increase from west to east, with
widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms possible along
a loosely defined frontal boundary. Elevated shower chances linger
for northern Utah through Thursday as the core of the system
slowly moves through. Snow levels will start out around 9000 to
9500 ft on the warm side of the system, falling quickly as colder
air pushes in to as low as 6500 to 7000 feet by Thursday morning.
As such, will see some high elevation snow accumulations with the
system, with widespread wetting rains many places elsewhere. Drier
conditions return by Friday, with a gradual warming trend
expected into the weekend. Around 80% of models then show another
system impacting portions of Utah early next week, some depicting
a stronger system, though confidence in specific details remains
fairly low at this time.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ122-123.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Wilson
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion