Deep Creek, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

972
FXUS65 KBOI 251531
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
931 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.DISCUSSION...No short-term forecast changes, i.e., sunny and
warm today, dry cold front overnight and early Friday morning,
moderate west winds and 10 degrees cooling Friday, then sunny
and warm again Saturday and Sunday but not quite as warm as
today. The main event comes later in the form of a major upper
trough from the Gulf of Alaska and series of surface cold fronts
Monday through Wednesday, with widespread pcpn and much cooler
temps. Latest GFS and ECMWF differ on the depth of the main
trough, with GFS the deeper and colder model. Our forecast
already has 0.75 inch of rain forecast for Boise Monday through
Wednesday, and as much as 1.50 to 1.75 inch in the Boise
Mountains and west Central Idaho Mountains, and cold enough
for snow there as low as 7000 feet MSL. However, PoPs are being
held to only 50-70% on each 12-hour period due to uncertainty
4 to 6 days out. As newer model data come in we anticipate
raising those PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. A dry cold front is
anticipated overnight into early Friday. Surface winds: E-SE
5-15 kt ahead of the front, becoming NW 10-20 kt with gusts
to 30 kt after 05Z Friday. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SE 5-15
kt, becoming NW 15-25 kt after 05Z Friday.
KBOI...VFR with mostly clear skies. Dry cold front to bring a
wind shift around 09Z Friday. Surface winds: SE up to 10 kt,
becoming WNW 10-20 kt around 09Z Friday.
Weekend Outlook...VFR to continue as high pressure builds in
behind the dry cold front. Increasing high clouds and SE
wind beginning late Sunday ahead of a stronger trough slated
to impact the region Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...An upper level
ridge keeps clear skies and temperatures about 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. A dry cold front will swing
through the region late Thursday through Friday morning.
Temperatures drop behind the front from 10 degrees above normal,
down to about normal. Still fairly warm as lower elevations see
highs in the mid 70s and high elevations highs in the mid 60s on
Friday. Additionally, the front will bring gusts of 20-30 mph
Friday morning through the afternoon. We will remain dry with
only a brief increase in cloud cover ahead of the front. The
front will also help clear out some residual smoke in mountain
valleys, but hazy conditions from nearby fires in the west
central mountains of Idaho will continue. We warm up to 5
degrees above normal on Saturday before a strong trough in the
long term.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The high-pressure
dominated pattern will give way to an unsettled period beginning
early next week. There is strong agreement (nearly 100%),
amongst both deterministic and ensemble data, that a Fall-like
trough will impact the region Monday through at least Wednesday.
The trough is expected to usher in temperatures 5-8 degrees
below normal along with a chance of precipitation area-wide.
Snow-levels could drop as low as 7500 feet, meaning higher peaks
may see their first dusting of snow since Spring. Instability
associated with the trough will help to generate thunderstorms
as well, with guidance suggesting a 20-30% chance of thunder for
most locations across eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho. By
Thursday there is good agreement that a ridge of high pressure
will rebound over the western US, with dry conditions returning
and temperatures climbing to near average.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....LC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....MC

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion