Delavan, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

730
FXUS63 KMPX 301937
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
237 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like warmth continues into the beginning of October, with
  record highs possible both Friday and Saturday.
- Frontal timing for the weekend continues to slow down, with
  greatest precipitation potential arriving on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Multiple days of Summer-like weather conditions are on tap this
week. The heat wave peaks Friday & Saturday with the potential to
crack the 90 degree mark both days - a very rare occurrence in
October. The night shift did an excellent job diving into the
historical weather data for our climate sites, so I encourage you to
read the previous AFD for context. Today`s temperatures have been
slower to warm than yesterday, given the broad area of cloud cover
across the region, but highs will still top out in the lower 80s.
Wednesday will see an uptick in sunshine as we should scatter cloud
cover by sunset Wednesday evening. Thursday & Friday will be see
temperatures ramp up as skies remain mostly clear. The expansive
blocking high over the Great Lakes will finally begin to weaken &
shift eastward into the Atlantic by the weekend. The flow aloft will
begin to shift to southwesterly flow, this should allow for cooler,
but more moist air to work into the Upper Midwest. For precip, our
mid-levels are too warm and dry to support any appreciable
precipitation. We`re still seeing the EPS and a few of the CAMS try
to develop some accas type showers Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
The best chance to see any precip would likely be W MN.
For Saturday & Sunday, the key trend in the models is a slower
progression of the sfc low and cold front. The latest (12z) ECMWF
doesn`t move the boundary through until Sunday afternoon for
west/central MN and evening timeframe for the Twin Cities. This
would result in another day of highs in the 80s. Models typically
tend to struggle with timing when resolving blocking patterns so it
doesn`t surprise us for a later timing for a fropa. Record high
temperatures are possible Saturday. It should stay mostly sunny
given the cloud cover doesn`t increase until Saturday night/Sunday
timeframe. Winds should increase given the tightening pressure
gradient across the region. We have decided to nudge winds/gusts
toward the NBM 90th percentile Saturday. This translates to
southwest winds with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range for western &
southern Minnesota. Saturday night will likely end up being mild
with lows in the upper 60s to possibly low 70s in the core Metro.
October 4th climatology for the Twin Cities: average high is 65 and
the average low is 46. Both the record high & warm low may end up
broken. For Sunday, a mild start ahead of the frontal passage. The
slower frontal passage likely means we could see very mild
temperatures still in place for the marathon happening on Sunday.
This will need to be monitored given the potential impacts,
thankfully it`s still the lesser likely of the two scenarios with
other models bringing the front through Sunday morning.
For precip, the majority of the precip will fall behind the front -
typical of an anafront. This should limit any severe weather threat
on Sunday. The latest ECMWF would suggest it`ll be a dry frontal
passage for the MPX CWA as the precipitation tracks from the Dakotas
through northern Minnesota. This seems to be the increasingly
favored outcome for rain. Early next week, a high pressure drops
into the Upper Midwest. This will usher in temperatures closer to
normal for the first full week of October.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
High clouds are expected with southeasterly winds 10kts or less
through tonight. Clouds begin to clear from west to east late
tomorrow morning, with wind speeds increasing for western
Minnesota by the very end of the period.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SSW 10G20kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10G20kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 10G20kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Dye

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion