Delmar, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

303
FXUS64 KBMX 101105
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
605 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
A broad mid-level ridge is centered over the Southern Plains and
extends north into Canada. Surface ridging is centered over the
Northeast and extends southwest into the Deep South promoting
easterly to northeasterly surface flow across Central Alabama. Deep
layer moisture is lacking with 1000-500mb RH values ranging from 30-
50%. Although the easterly flow and clear skies will provide us with
a cool morning, the prominent ridging across the area will result
in hot, stable conditions today. Temperatures will trend warmer
tomorrow as heights rise due to a subtle eastward shift in the
ridge axis, and expect to see highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
with sunny skies. Fortunately, from a "feels like" perspective,
afternoon humidity will be low as dewpoints mix down into the 50s
to lower 60s, but that doesn`t bode well for soil moistures which
will continue to decrease as the forecast remains rain-free.
86/Martin
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
The extended period will feature much of the same hot and dry
weather as the broad ridge axis slowly shifts eastward and
eventually becomes centered over the Midwest by the weekend. A
dominant surface ridge will also maintain presence along the Eastern
CONUS. We will get grazed by a mid-level trough axis Thursday night,
but unfortunately the airmass looks much too dry to achieve any
precip. If anything, it will further reinforce the dry airmass,
especially in the mid-levels. We`re essentially dealing with an
omega block which will result in little change in the synoptic
pattern even into early next week. As conditions remain dry and soil
moisture decreases, temperatures will trend warmer each day through
the forecast period, and would expect to see drought conditions
gradually expand across the forecast area. Highs will trend
towards the mid 90s by Monday with low humidity each day and
minimal cloud cover.
86/Martin
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.
/44/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The dry and hot weather pattern will continue through our 7 day
forecast period. Min RHs will drop into the 30% range for most of
the area by this afternoon and will persist through the end of the
week. The center of the high pressure will build overhead over
the weekend, leading to slightly higher daytime highs. This will
result in MinRHs dropping into the 25-30% range for many locations
on Saturday. Although values are currently forecast to remain
above critical thresholds, drying soils will likely lead to
expanding drought conditions and less favorable fire weather
conditions each day as we progress through the week. Winds should
remain generally light with occasional gusts due to daytime
mixing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    85  60  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  87  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  64  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      85  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  86  61  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        85  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION.../44/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion