Delta Junction, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

394
FXAK69 PAFG 271003
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 AM AKDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper level troughing pattern continues over Alaska, with
a series of low pressure systems working through the state. These
low pressure systems will bring continued rain and snow chances
across the Central/Eastern Interior, Brooks/Alaska Ranges, North
Slope and Northwest Arctic Coast. Meanwhile, much of the Western
Interior and West Coast remain mostly dry. Remnants of the low
pressure in the Gulf on Friday have quickly weakened upon making
it onshore in southeastern Alaska. The low becomes benign through
this morning, outside of wrapping some additional moisture into
the Central/Eastern Interior. The primary low of interest is
translating through southwest Alaska and the Aleutians this
morning, entering into the Gulf of Alaska. This low will support
an area of moisture being lifted into the Central/Eastern Interior
and Brooks/Alaska Ranges, supporting continued rain and snow
chances through the weekend. Meanwhile, an Arctic trough and
associated low in the Beaufort Sea support additional rain and
snow chances along the North Slope and Arctic Coast this weekend.
As this Arctic trough drops south into Alaksa, an additional
surge of cooler air filters into the region today and Sunday.
Confidence has increased in light snowfall accumulations across
the area, with the highest potential amounts in the mid to high
elevations.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered rain and snow showers through Monday.
- High confidence in widespread light snowfall accumulations
  across mid and high elevations, with best chances across lower
  elevations tonight into Sunday.
- Lows continue to reach near to below freezing, supporting more
  widespread frost/freeze conditions, as we continue to wait for
  one of the record latest first freezes at Fairbanks
  International Airport.
- Highs through the weekend in the low 30s to low 40s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Breezy northerly winds around 20 to 30 mph will gradually
  dissipate through today along the West Coast.
- Drier conditions through the weekend on the West Coast and
  Western Interior.
- Highs through the weekend in the upper 30s to low 40s.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers through early next
  week, primarily across the North Slope and Central/Eastern
  Brooks Range.
- Highs in the low to mid 30s along the Arctic Coast, teens to
  low 30s in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.
An area of scattered rain and snow showers continues to linger
across portions of the Central/Eastern Interior and Alaska/Brooks
Ranges early this morning. This is associated with wraparound
moisture from a rapidly weakening low across southeastern Alaska.
To the north, isolated snow showers continue to overspread the
North Slope and Arctic Coast with an associated low translating
into the Beaufort Sea. These chances will remain in place through
the remainder of today and Sunday. The attention then turns
towards the area of low pressure tracking through southwest
Alaska and the Aleutians this morning, entering into the Gulf of
Alaska. This low will support an area of moisture being lifted
into the Central/Eastern Interior and Brooks/Alaska Ranges, with
additional increasing rain and snow chances today into tonight. As
a Arctic trough impinges south into Alaska today, cooler air will
continue to filter into the area. This will support a changeover
from a rain/snow mix to all snow as surface temperatures drop to
around or below freezing tonight. This will introduce what will
likely be the first official freeze of the season for Fairbanks,
in addition to light snow tonight into Sunday. Elsewhere, drier
conditions return to the West Coast and Western Interior, outside
of a low chance for an isolated shower. Breezy north winds
gradually subside through today, with peak wind gusts around 20 to
30 mph.
As for snowfall, accumulations appear to be light for most of the
area with only around 0.10 to 0.50 inch of QPF through the end of
the weekend. Confidence is highest in snowfall accumulations
through the mid to high elevations where colder temperatures will
be apparent. In the lower elevations, there is some uncertainty on
potential light accumulations given temperatures around freezing
and warmer ground temperatures that would need to be overcome.
Nonetheless, confidence remains consistent amongst ensembles that
at least some light accumulations will occur tonight into Sunday.
This would primarily be on elevated and grassy surfaces across
the lower elevations. Snowfall amounts through Sunday are expected
to be around a T-1" across the Tanana River Valley, 1-3" across
the Yukon Flats, and 3-8" across higher elevations of the
Alaska/Brooks Range and White Mountains. A SPS is in effect to
account for the potential of light snowfall accumulations through
Sunday.
As we progress into early next week, precipitation chances
gradually shift north and east of the Interior as a ridge nudges
into Western Alaska. This ridge should keep most of the region
drier to begin the week, as afternoon highs begin to see a warming
trend especially across the Interior. However, overnight lows will
continue to remain cool in the 20s and 30s, the coldest we have
seen so far this season across the Interior. Rain and snow showers
will continue across the Eastern Interior north to the Arctic
Coast for Monday, ahead of drier conditions across the Interior
on Tuesday as that ridge continues to shift east. This
reintroduces scattered rain and snow chances to the West Coast as
a trough begins to take shape behind the departing ridge into mid
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time,
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Next Wednesday through Friday.
Ensemble guidance is beginning to come into better agreement on
a trough pattern and associated low pressure system(s) taking
shape across the Bering Sea by mid next week. While there remains
subtle differences on timing and exact paths, this does become
something to watch. This pattern setup would support widespread
precipitation chances along the West Coast in addition to gusty
winds and potential coastal flooding. While it is too early to pin
down the exact details, it is worth noting the increasing
confidence in this pattern. Additional low pressure system may
translate through this pattern as we get into the later part of
next. Stay tuned as we track how this pattern evolves over the
coming days.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-804-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-803-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-816-817-851-854.
&&
$$

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion