Delta Park, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

421
FXUS63 KMPX 020721
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
221 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like weather will continue through this weekend, with
  near record highs today through Saturday.
- Very windy conditions becoming more likely Saturday and Sunday,
  with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible each day.
- Seasonable weather expected behind the front to start next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A weak surface trough, combined with a shortwave evident in the h5
RAP analysis has helped give us an accas field robust enough over
southwest/south central MN to at least give us some radar returns to
look at overnight. However, the sub-cloud layer has remained dry and
these returns have largely been virga. The LLJ these showers are
sitting in will diminish as we go through the morning, with any
threat of an isolated shower ending shortly after sunrise. For the
rest of the today, we`ll see the eastern Dakotas surface trough
slide into western MN, where it will wash out. This front will
washout in response to the development of a lee side trough over the
eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas. This lee side trough will
deepen into a surface low through the day on Saturday, before
ejecting northeast toward northwest Ontario Saturday night into
Sunday night. The surface low will actually get quite deep,
bottoming out near 990mb Sunday morning as it moves through the
northern Red River Valley. Given how deep this low gets, it will
impart a tightening pressure gradient over the upper MS Valley
Friday into Sunday. Both Friday and Saturday look breezy as a
result, with the windiest day being Saturday when winds up at h85
will be near 45kts. Mixing on Saturday will result in some 40+mph
wind gust west of I-35. These strong southerly winds will also usher
in a very warm airmass, with highs both Friday and Saturday expected
to be up around 90 west of I-35 and south of I-94 both days, which
will put record highs in play both days for MSP and STC. The only
saving grace when it comes to this heat is dewpoints won`t be
horrendous, mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Still, when the Twin
Cities has only seen the high meet or exceed 90 in October 3 times
going back to 1872, this a rare airmass for us to see so late into
the season. For Sunday, it will still be breezy, but with the front
moving across the area during the day, we`ll see highs get checked
up in the mid 80s for eastern MN and western WI as cooler air starts
to filter in. Though for the Twin Cities, lows Sunday morning still
look to remain above 70, so not the most comfortable of weather
conditions if you have a 26ish mile run planned for between
Minneapolis and St. Paul.
As for precipitation with this system over the weekend, that all
looks to fall on the cool side of the system to the north and west
of the surface low track. Given the surface low will track well
northwest of the MPX area, we will be squarely within this systems
dry slot, with it looking all but certain that this will be a dry
frontal passage for us.
The main story for next week is temperatures will return to normal
for the first half of the week. Dewpoints will also fall into the
upper 20s to mid 30s, so if we manage to see any clear skies/light
winds, we could really see temperatures crater. The one morning that
looks to have the best radiational cooling conditions is Wednesday
morning. This is when most locations should fall into the 30s, with
some frost or even a light freeze possible in central MN. For the
second half of next week, surface winds switch over to the south and
we`ll start to see temperatures creep back up, though we`ll be
flirting with 70 as opposed to 90 this time around. As those
southerly winds develop, we could also see precipitation chances
return, though as expected this far out, model spread is quite high
for when we may see rain chances again between the end of next work
week and the following weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
In a change to the status quo, we have returns on radar this
evening over southwest MN. However, these returns are coming
from some accas and area associated with virga. This is expected
to be the case through the night, so continued with a dry
forecast at all TAFs. The weak pressure trough/front over the
eastern Dakotas now will shift into western MN this afternoon
while also washing out. This will push the strongest winds to
south central up through east central MN and western WI today
(10g20 kts). Winds will drop to 5 kts or less tonight, with
calm winds for central MN. Another round of accas will be
possible again Thursday night, but this time over western WI.
KMSP...no additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 20-25G30-40 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion