445 FXUS61 KILN 022316 AFDILNArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 716 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue into early next week.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Upper high will remain across the region through the night. Surface high will shift slightly allowing whatever light low level flow that occurs to become more southeasterly. Will continue to have thin cirrus through the night and some patchy river valley fog will also occur again.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Expansive upper ridge will remain through the period. Cirrus will diminish. Some diurnal cumulus could develop late in the day. Low level winds will back further to become southerly, although still quite light. Temperatures will be just a bit warmer than persistence.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Anomalously strong upper ridge will persist into early next week as its center shifts to the Atlantic coast. This will keep dry and very warm conditions across the region. Highs will remain 10 degrees or more above normal. Lows will be trending warmer each night as low level moisture gradually increases.
Pattern shift will then occur as a robust short wave moves out of the Canadian Rockies and eventually tracks across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday with an increasing spread in strength and timing as it reaches this far east. Even with this spread, there is broad agreement that an associated cold front will push through the area sometime between late Tuesday and early Wednesday.
There is some potential for showers to start developing in the return flow as early as Monday night. But chances for rainfall will increase as better forcing moves into the region and additional moisture works its way in.
In the wake of the front, a much cooler airmass will spread into the area with temperatures falling below normal.
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.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected except for some river valley fog potential at KLUK overnight. High clouds will continue across the region overnight and with cu development primarily tomorrow. Winds are expected to be light and less than 10 knots.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Tuesday.
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.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...
NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion