Devils Lake, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

744
FXUS63 KFGF 031859
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
159 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record warmth today and Saturday.
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Saturday evening across most of eastern North Dakota,
  extending into far Northwest Minnesota
- Rain over most of northeastern North Dakota Saturday night into
  Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...Synopsis...
Ridging over the central US has resulted in a large area of well
above average temperatures across portions of the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. Upstream, a pronounced trough is evident on water
vapor with a strong upper level low located over central California.
This large trough will the catalyst for unsettled weather over the
weekend, including a risk for severe weather late Saturday.
As the surface low departs late Sunday, cold air will be dragged in
behind, resulting in frost/freeze concerns Monday, Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings. Guidance has sped up the passage of the
surface high compared to 24 hours ago, leaving much uncertainty
if Tuesday or Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the week.
...Near Record heat...
Near record/record heat is forecast this afternoon across the entire
FA, and again for Saturday in southeastern ND/much of MN. 850 mb and
925 mb temperatures today are the warmest we have yet seen this
week. Similar/slightly higher values build into our far south for
Saturday afternoon. With only a few cirrus clouds, very efficient
heating is leading to temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
this afternoon. This seems reasonable again for Saturday in
southeast ND/much of MN.
...Thunderstorms Saturday...
A cold front will be draped across northeastern ND Saturday
afternoon, slowly propagating east with time. Out ahead of the
front, a ribbon of 1500 J/Kg MUCAPE looks to exist. There are many
problems environmentally though for widespread severe thunderstorm
development. First, capping looks to be an issue east of the Red
River Valley. Second, the best shear is well displaced to the west,
closer to the cold front. That leaves just a sliver of real estate
where severe storms could form, basically along and behind the cold
front in the region highlighted by the SPC in the level 1 out of 5
marginal risk. As better lift overspreads the region late in the
day, thunderstorms should develop across the risk area. These storms
will be elevated, with a mean wind that favors them remaining
parallel to the front. Mid level lapse rates of 7-8 degrees/Km
will work in storms favor if they can get over the meager
instability, which looks to be the limiting factor for severe
weather. The main threat is hail to the size of quarters with
any stronger cores that form. While many storms will likely
develop in this frontal corridor, only a handful are anticipated
to become strong to severe.
...Rain Saturday Night - Sunday...
As the surface low tracks from the Nebraska Panhandle on Saturday
northeastward towards the Lake of the Woods midday Sunday, a
deformation band will stretch from southwest to northeast on the
lows cold side, impacting northeastern ND into far northwestern MN.
1 to 2 inches of rain is forecasted in this steady, stratiform band.
Just to the east of this stratiform band, the thunderstorms
mentioned above will lead to locally higher amounts on its eastern
fringe. Rainfall totals taper off dramatically to the south and
east.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR throughout the TAF period, but LLWS and gusty winds will
still bring aviation impacts. Southerly winds will increase
throughout the afternoon, with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will
decrease slightly overnight, but a low level jet kicks in. This
will bring up to 50 knots of LLWS, and maintain surface wind
gusts up to 20 knots. Winds should start Saturday off a bit
lower, but an approaching cold front will cause winds to shift
to the north at KDVL at the tail end of the TAF period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion