587 FXUS64 KLZK 251717 AAA AFDLZKArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
-Shower and thunderstorm chances continue mainly for central to eastern Arkansas this afternoon
-Cooler than normal temperatures linger through the rest of this week
-Drier and calmer conditions expected this weekend as temperatures warm to above normal levels going into next week
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The overall weather pattern is turning much quieter, as the main low circulation that brought multiple rounds of rain over the last few days across Arkansas is lifting north and east of the state. Some residual showery activity is remaining mostly across southeastern Missouri early this morning, but another mid-level wave swinging across the state today will promote some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring eastern Arkansas mainly this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 70s and 80s across lower elevations and 60s to 70s across higher elevations of Arkansas, which is several degrees below normal.
Mid-level troughing will continue to deepen across the southeastern United States through the rest of this week, but the favorable dynamics will remain east of the state, promoting a warming and drying trend going into and through this weekend as high pressure begins to build in from the west. High pressure will persist across the region into early next week, with a persistent amplified ridge aloft remaining mostly stationary across the Midwest during this period. The longer term outlook through the middle of next week is pretty good agreement on ridging remaining anchored across the eastern half of the U.S., which would prolong generally dry and warm conditions across the state.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Recent sat imgry depicted lingering lower clouds acrs much of the state, w/ clearing skies acrs NWrn AR. Drier air and NWrly winds wl continue to usher in drier air, w/ improving CIGs expanding Swrd thru the PD. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs are expected to persist thru the aftn at Cntrl to Srn terminals, w/ CIGs improving to VFR lvls overnight Thurs night. Some guidance has been indicative of fog development acrs NWrn to Wrn AR overnight, but confidence remains low attm, so have only included VFR lvl reduced VISBYs for now.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 57 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 59 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 54 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 59 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 61 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 61 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 56 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 55 80 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 58 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 59 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 59 83 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 59 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 60 81 56 83 / 10 0 0 0
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.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...72
NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion