Dona Ana New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

161
FXUS64 KEPZ 091320
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
720 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
A vort lobe embedded in southwest flow around the western edge
of the subtropical ridge has been producing a persistent band of
rain showers most of the night, stretching from the northern Gulf
of California into south-central New Mexico. The last few runs of
the HRRR have a good handle on this feature, and indicate the
showers will weaken through mid-morning as they drift northwards.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 702 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
- Drier and somewhat breezy conditions Thursday and Friday.
- Remnant tropical moisture will flow over the area Saturday
   through Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain
   threat will be favored in western areas.
- Temperatures will be near or above normal through Saturday,
   then cooling early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1018 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
For Thu/Fri, the upper high to the east shifts closer to us over W
TX, nudging some of the moisture into AZ. PWs remain above normal
through Fri (about 1.1"; normal is around 0.6"), but the mid-level
capping will limit our instability and convective potential. As a
result, mainly dry conditions are forecast for the short-term. The
pressure gradient stays somewhat tight through Fri, especially in
western areas closer to where surface troughing develops in
Sonora/southern AZ. E-SE winds remain on the breezy side, generally
10-20 mph, stronger near the NM-AZ border.
For the weekend and early next week, our attention shifts
to the E-Pac with multiple tropical systems rolling up the Baja.
First is now TS Priscilla, which is currently off the southern coast
of Baja and forecast to weaken/shear off before reaching the coast
on Fri. Its moisture gets scooped up by a Pacific trough Fri-Sat,
bringing highly anomalous moisture to AZ/Four Corners region. As
the trough progresses eastward Sat night/Sun, we`ll get the near-
record moisture content as well. PWs are modeled to be around 1.4"
at EPZ Sat night according to the latest ensemble guidance with
some members above 1.5". Record PWs for mid-Oct are about 1.2", so
there`s a high chance we break a record this weekend.
Confidence is high in this pattern, but we`re less certain if all
this moisture will produce a risk of flash flooding. The passing
trough will provide some lift for storms to develop, but extensive
cloud cover could limit instability and leave us with more
stratiform precip. Confidence should grow by Friday on how
convective the precip will be and the risk levels for heavy
rainfall. NBM 90th percentile QPF for Sat shows totals up to 2"
while the median is generally near 0.5". Rain/storm chances
increase from west to east Sat with western areas favored to see
flash flooding into Sun AM.
On Sunday, moisture associated with the second tropical feature
(likely to be TS Raymond) reaches our area as it takes a similar
path to Priscilla, parallel to the SW Mexican coast. The upper
trough will be ejecting into the Plains, so we won`t have as much
forcing on Sunday with this other batch of tropical moisture, at
least initially. There`s uncertainty regarding Raymond`s exact path
and where the deepest moisture sets up Sun/Mon, but we will most
likely see continued near-record PWs. The global ensembles are
focusing the heaviest QPF Sun in SW NM where there is currently a
Slight ERO in place (and even a high-end Slight more into
Tucson`s CWA). Another feature to keep an eye on is a second
Pacific trough to the northwest early next week, which may provide
some lift and scoop up the moisture. We`re unsure if this trough
will be close enough and/or timed correctly to enhance our storm
chances into Tue. Regardless of these uncertainties, areas west
of the RGV will again be favored to see storms early next week.
Thereafter, we get fully into the westerly, mid-latitude flow,
allowing dry conditions to return into the middle of next week
with some breezy winds.
Temperatures will warm to a few degrees above normal through Sat.
Temps fall back to below average early next week with the expected
increase in cloud cover and rain chances. Rebounding temps are
then expected to end the period as the moisture is flushed out to
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Band of showers lifting north across southwestern New Mexico may
graze TCS in the next couple hours before weakening, but no
restrictions are expected. Otherwise, expect a quiet 24 hours with
SCT-BKN mid and high clouds across the area, and ESE winds
occasionally breezy (gusts around 20 knots).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 702 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Scattered showers over parts of southwestern NM this morning will
diminish before Noon, with today and Friday remaining mostly rain-
free. Tropical moisture will begin edging into southwestern NM on
Saturday, with widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms expected
Saturday night through Tuesday. Localized heavy rainfall will be
possible, especially in SW New Mexico Sunday into Monday, as
tropical moisture streams towards the area. Significant rainfall
amounts are possible depending on the path of the tropical remnants.
Cooler temperatures will accompany the increased rain chances, with
drier conditions expected by mid-week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  86  68  90 /  10   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            57  81  57  84 /  20   0   0  10
Las Cruces               62  82  63  84 /  10   0   0  20
Alamogordo               59  83  61  85 /  10   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               42  61  44  64 /  20   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    60  80  60  81 /  10   0  10  30
Silver City              56  76  57  77 /  10   0  20  60
Deming                   64  85  64  87 /  10   0  10  30
Lordsburg                64  83  64  83 /  10   0  10  50
West El Paso Metro       67  84  68  87 /  10   0   0  10
Dell City                59  84  58  87 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             64  88  65  91 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda               58  77  59  81 /  10   0   0  10
Fabens                   64  87  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             64  83  64  86 /  10   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           63  83  63  86 /  10   0   0  10
Jornada Range            61  81  61  84 /  10   0   0  20
Hatch                    62  84  62  87 /  10   0   0  20
Columbus                 63  86  65  88 /  10   0  10  20
Orogrande                60  81  60  84 /  10   0   0  10
Mayhill                  47  71  48  75 /  20   0   0  10
Mescalero                46  73  48  75 /  20   0   0  10
Timberon                 46  69  47  72 /  20   0   0  10
Winston                  51  72  51  75 /  10  10  10  40
Hillsboro                58  79  57  82 /  10   0  10  40
Spaceport                59  81  60  84 /  10   0   0  20
Lake Roberts             52  76  53  77 /  10  10  20  60
Hurley                   57  79  57  79 /  10   0  10  50
Cliff                    60  84  61  83 /  10   0  20  60
Mule Creek               56  80  57  79 /  10  10  20  70
Faywood                  58  77  59  79 /  10   0  10  40
Animas                   63  85  63  85 /  10   0  10  50
Hachita                  62  83  62  84 /  10   0  10  50
Antelope Wells           61  85  61  86 /  10   0  10  40
Cloverdale               60  81  60  79 /  10   0  10  50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...25-Hardiman

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion