Douglas Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

168
FXUS65 KTWC 120834
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 AM MST Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Deep tropical moisture will remain over the area into
Monday, along with widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. This
prolonged period of rain along with more scattered stronger
thunderstorms will result in continued potential for flooding, thus
a Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday. Rain chances
diminish Tuesday and dry conditions are expected areawide the second
half of next week. High temperatures will be below normal through
all of this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Latest IR satellite shows partly cloudy skies from
Tucson north and westward with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies to the
south and east of Tucson. KEMX radar shows a continuation of some
scattered showers (brief tropical downpours) across most of
southeast Arizona early this morning, with more widespread moderate
rain to the south of the Int`l border. The larger scale pattern has
a broad trough over the western US, with record levels of tropical
moisture for this time of year (00Z KTWC sounding PWAT of 1.66
inches) well entrenched across our forecast area. Mid level shearing
remnants out ahead of the dissipated former Tropical Cyclone Raymond
continue to move to the north across Sonora and that will be a
factor today, especially across Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties.
Latest HREF/CAMs depict that more widespread/persistent stratiform
rain with a just a few embedded thunderstorms will increase during
the early morning hours and continue through much of the day in
Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. While these areas will see more of
a persistent/continuous rain potential, which will add up as time
progresses, 3-hourly rain rates will mostly be in the 0.25" to 0.50"
range and totaling to about 1 to 1.5" (locally above 2 inches)
through tonight. This will certainly be enough to get rises in
washes and rivers across this region. For locales further NW,
including Pima, Pinal, Graham and Greenlee Counties, a few more
breaks of sunshine will allow for greater instability with SBCAPE
locally above 1000 J/KG especially from Tucson westward. This
instability in combination with larger scale ascent from the
approaching trough, will allow for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop, especially from late morning through the
afternoon and into the evening. The thunderstorms in this area will
produce the higher rain rates that we are more accustomed to during
a highly moist monsoon period, with greater potential for flash
flooding with any stronger thunderstorms.
As anomalously high levels of moisture remain across out forecast
area on Monday, with favorable dynamics out ahead of the digging
trough, that will continue to result in more widespread shower
activity with a few stronger thunderstorms during the day on Monday,
with the focus being on locales from Sells eastward. The Flood Watch
remains in effect for our entire forecast area through 5 PM Monday.
As the longwave trough continues to move to the east on Tuesday,
that will finally allow drier air to move in from the south and
west. There could still be enough residual moisture for a slight
chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms across Graham and
Greenlee Counties Tuesday with the rest of the area being dry. The
trough will shift east into the Great Basin and Central/Northern
Rockies mid to late week with dry weather for us and below normal
temperatures for the entire week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
Generally BKN-OVC clouds at 5K-8K ft AGL thru the valid period along
with SCTD to NMRS -SHRA and ISOLD to WDLY SCTD -TSRA. MVFR conds
psbl nr any SHRA/TSRA due to lower VSBYS and CIGS. SFC wind SELY/SLY
at 5-10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms today and Monday. Drier conditions start to
move in on Tuesday with dry conditions area wide Wednesday into next
weekend. Minimum RH values will be at least 35+ percent in the
valley`s, with higher values in the mountains into Tuesday. Min RH
values lower into the 18-25 percent range in the valleys the second
half of this week. 20-foot sustained wind speeds will generally be
15 mph or less through this week, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph.
High temperatures will be below normal through the next 7 days.
&& &&
.HYDROLOGY...Runoff from the expected rainfall through Monday
will bring rises to the main stem rivers/creeks across southeast
Arizona, with some of them potentially rising 3 to 8 feet. The main
areas of concern will be the San Pedro River, Nogales Wash and the
Santa Cruz River. The latest river forecasts from the CBRFC
currently keep all of our major rivers below bankfull stages. A few
thunderstorms today may also produce areas of flash flooding.
Normally dry washes and low water crossings will have water flowing
through them.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for AZZ501>509-511>515.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion