Dover, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

422
FXUS62 KMHX 051356
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide quiet weather through the end of the
week with a gradual warming trend. A cold front will move
through the area this weekend, with high pressure building in
late weekend into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 9:55 AM Friday...The forecast remains on track with no
changes needed with the mid-morning update.
Previous Discussion...As of 225 AM Fri...Complex upper low
swirls over the Great Lakes and southern Canada this morning
like the past several days, although core of this low has
continued to shift northward and resulted in height rises over
the Carolinas, which will continue today in the wake of a weak
passing shortwave. At the surface, pattern now resembles
something closer to a typical warm season regime with weak high
pressure offshore extending inland and complex occluded low over
the Great Lakes with a stalled frontal boundary extending along
the western Appalachians.
The increase in heights and southwesterly surface flow point to
yet another uptick in temperatures for ENC today with temps
touching the low 90s inland and mid 80s along the water. Despite
the steady increase in low-level moisture, mid-levels will
continue to remain very dry and skies will remain mostly sunny
apart from diurnal cu. No precipitation in the forecast
tomorrow, although a very small minority of guidance suggests
the risk for a rogue shower along the sea breeze. If this does
happen, it will be very shallow and brief.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Fri...Mainly quiet conditions tonight although
secondary and stronger cold front currently over the central
plains will be advancing eastward through Saturday morning,
forecast to abut the Appalachians by sunrise. Ahead of the
boundary we`ll see increasing moisture in the column pooling
ahead of the front as well as a sharpening offshore trough,
which will bring an increase in offshore shower and t-storm
activity potentially threatening OBX in the early morning hours.
Deeper low-level moisture overnight combined with calm winds
points to a better risk for fog and low stratus across ENC. This
also means tonight will be one of the muggiest of the week with
temps hovering in the upper 60s inland and low 70s coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Fri...
Key Messages
- Above normal temps continue Saturday
- Cooler and unsettled late this weekend into next week
Complex low pressure system will continue to push through
Canada, while upper trough pivots through the eastern US, and
cold front approaches from the west Sat. The front will move
through Saturday night into early Sunday. Ahead of the front
Saturday, moist SSW flow will allow for temps to warm into the
low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the coast. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible Sat night. High pressure
will build in from the north Sunday and early next week. Weak
wedge looks to set up behind the front into next week, as front
lingers offshore (waves developing along it) and potential
coastal troughing, which would give way to NE flow, more clouds
than sun and increased shower chances...with best chances along
the coast. Best chances for scattered showers and storms will
be Sunday afternoon and evening. High temps will fall back into
the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70 deg. Another
front will approach the area late week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Saturday/...
As of 710 AM Fri...After some shallow nuisance fog at OAJ and
EWN, expected to clear out by 12z, VFR conditions prevail today in
a more summer-like pattern with spotty diurnal cu and advancing
sea breeze. Lack of deeper moisture will keep conditions dry,
although cannot completely rule out a stray shallow shower or
two immediately along the seabreeze.
Main concern for aviation turns to tonight with continued
moistening of low levels. Model soundings depict a much more
robust saturated surface layer compared to the past several
days, and with mostly clear skies and widespread calm winds
tonight looks like a good candidate for fog, especially for EWN
and OAJ. Probabilistic guidance is much more bullish on IFR
conditions (up to 40-50% for most terminals), and opted to
forecast IFR where confidence is highest. Min value showed is
3SM, but as forecast is refined wouldn`t be surprised to see vis
drop to 1SM or less in some spots.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Saturday. A cold front will move through Saturday night and
early Sunday. Widespread sub-VFR cigs may develop behind the
front Sat night and Sunday, potentially lingering into early
next week. Scattered showers and storms expected Sunday
afternoon and eve.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 255 AM Fri...Benign boating conditions currently in place
over area waters with southwest flow of 5-10 kts and seas 2-3
feet in a more summer-like regime. Winds will gradually ease
this morning and give way to more dominant sea and sound breezes
in the afternoon, resulting in generally southeasterly flow at
around 10 kt through the afternoon and evening. Seas change
little, hovering at around 2-3 feet.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early
  next week
S-SW winds 5-15 kt Sat ahead of a cold front. The front will
move through the waters Saturday night and early Sunday.
Moderate NNE flow will develop behind the front Sunday 10-15 kt,
increasing to 15-25 kt Mon and Tue. Seas will remain at 2-4 ft
this weekend, building to 4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/OJC
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion