Doylestown, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

252
FXUS61 KPHI 260039
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
839 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front has moved north of the area. Behind it, a cold front
is expected to move through tonight. This front then lingers off
the coast into the beginning of the weekend. Broad high pressure
will then approach from the west on Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
835 PM...Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are pushing
across the urban corridor at this time in association with a
cold front. This activity has become weak and disorganized and
at this point it appears both the threat for severe weather and
flooding has ended. The front will continue to push east and
southeastward off the coast by later tonight before tending to
stall. By the overnight period showers and any storms will have
come to an end for areas near and N/W of the I-95 corridor but
as an impulse moves through aloft along the front, more showers
may affect areas closer to the coast through the predawn hours.
Low tonight will fall into the 60s and it;ll remain humid
overnight.
On Friday, the surface high well to the west will begin to ridge
across the area. An upper trough will still linger across NY/PA
however. Drier air will arrive for the morning across the western
areas and then spread east thru the day. We`ll continue with some
clouds/fog early then becoming partly sunny for the afternoon. A
couple showers across the S/E areas are possible during the morning
but pops are only 20% to 30%. It`ll remain seasonably warm with
highs climbing into the upper 70s/low 80s across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Friday night and the weekend, a weak surface trough will be
located just to the south offshore. This will lead to the potential
for some light showers, most concentrated across DelMarVa and southern
NJ but heavy rainfall is not currently anticipated. Showers look
to be more scattered during the daytime on Saturday (20-40% chance)
before becoming a bit more widespread Saturday night (45-65% chance).
Highs in the mid 70s expected with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heading into the workweek, a broad upper ridge will be located over
the central US with at least one low pressure system well offshore.
NHC is continuing to monitor now Tropical Storm Humberto, along with
a second potential invest area for tropical cyclone development.
Given the temporal range of the forecasts, we dont currently know
much what the impacts or details of the tracks will be. NHC`s
message regarding these two systems remains that "the steering
scenario for the tropical cyclone will likely become more
complicated due to the interaction with the developing system
94L to the west" and as a result "there is lower than normal
confidence in this forecast track". Given the significant
uncertainty, the forecast will keep with a persistence forecast
with modest 20-40% chances of rain for Sunday-Tuesday and a
general lowering of temperatures trend through the middle of the
week. We`ll continue to monitor the systems for any potential
impacts and adjust the forecasts as confidence increases in at
least some viable solution.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight... Showers and scattered tstms will continue to move
through areas near and S/E of the urban corridor through this
evening. Following it, rains may linger into the overnight for
KMIV/KACY by taper off for the N/W sites (KRDG/KABE). Some mist
and patchy fog can be expected most areas, but perhaps becoming
dense and persist longer where some limited clearing happens
after midnight (NW sites). Winds become West to Northwest and
remain 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.
Friday... There may be some lingering low clouds and fog past
12Z at many TAF sites. After that however, VFR is expected to
return by mid-morning and remain for the remainder of the day.
West to Northwest winds will increase to around 10 knots by
afternoon. Medium confid.
Outlook...
Friday night through Tuesday...VFR conditions developing later
Friday. A chance of showers (35-45%) will continue through Monday,
presenting an opportunity for additional periods of sub-VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will increase late this afternoon for a short period
prior to the front crossing the waters. It doesn`t appear to persist
long enough to put up SCA flags however. There will be scattered
tstms too with localized higher winds and seas. South winds around
15/17 kts with gusts 20 to 22 knots mostly. Seas will build to
around 4 ft overall.
Winds and seas will settle late tonight with frequent showers
expected. Winds will become West to Northwest around 10 knots on
Friday.
Outlook...
Friday night through Monday...No marine headlines currently
expected. A chance of showers each day (around 20% Friday night,
60% on Saturday, 30-40% on Sunday and Monday). A small chance
(20% or less) embedded thunderstorms possible each day.
Rip Currents...
For Friday...kept the MODERATE risk all beaches. The wind
pattern behind the departing low looks to bring winds mostly
offshore and rather light for much of of the day. Swell continue
to lower as offshore storms move further away from our waters.
For Saturday...went with a LOW risk all beaches. While winds
turn northeast to east around 10 mph, wave heights offshore
continue to diminish and swell from storms well offshore
continues to dwindle for the time being.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AKL/OHara
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/OHara
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/Fitzsimmons/OHara
MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons/OHara

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion