Doylestown, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

342
FXUS63 KMKX 051403 AAA
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
903 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread gales over the nearshore and open waters of Lake
  Michigan into the late morning hours - Gale extended.
- Below normal temperatures continue into this weekend. High
  temperatures slowly warm back up early next week.
- Some chances for showers and a few storms for middle to later
  portions of next week, though uncertainty exists.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 903 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Gusty west to northwest winds will persist through today,
although their intensity will diminish from what we are seeing
early this morning. Winds will gradually taper off this
evening. Showers have diminished, but a few sprinkles are
possible today as we have deep cyclonic flow overhead.
We may need to add isolated showers to the forecast for tomorrow
afternoon and evening as another shortwave swings across WI.
Cronce
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 343 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Today through Saturday:
Models continue to show the digging broad 500 mb trough over the
region today into Saturday. There are a couple of shortwave
troughs within this cyclonic flow that shift through the area,
one tonight and another Saturday afternoon. Additional vorticity
maxima rotate through the area as well at times, which may bring
some sprinkles.
The shortwaves may bring a more focused period of upward
vertical motion and perhaps more broken stratocumulus clouds.
There is a decent amount of dry air to overcome on forecast
soundings. However, there is enough weak instability within the
cyclonic flow to help bring a small chance for showers mainly
this evening in the northwest parts of the area. There may be a
need to add more shower chances for Saturday afternoon, as the
second shortwave trough shifts toward the area.
Gusty west winds will linger today, within a tight pressure
gradient and good low level mixing. These winds will gradually
weaken tonight, as the strong low moves well northeast of the
area. Below normal temperatures will continue during this
period, with highs today around 60 degrees and in the lower 60s
on Saturday. Lows tonight should drop into the lower 40s away
from the lake.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 343 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Saturday night through Thursday:
High pressure will continue east from the Northern Plains into
the Great Lakes Region Saturday night into Sunday. This area of
high pressure will move over the Great Lakes Region and continue
east as we head into early next week.
For the weekend and into Monday, dry weather and below normal
temperature are expected. Highs will generally be in the 60s
with overnight lows in the 40s.
As we head into middle to later next week, guidance begins to
show a trough descending down from Canada into the Northern
Plains and Great Lakes Region. As this trough moves down from
the north, the ridge that was overhead looks to weaken and
stagnate a bit.
Given the current track of the upper level steering flow, its
likely that the center of the low will remain to our north, but
a sfc frontal boundary could be dragged across the state. This
would bring some chances for rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing
is very broad here, with low chance POPs (15 to 30 percent) as
there are discrepancies on when this frontal boundary could
move through, and whether or not there could be a shortwave
trough associated with it in the upper levels.
This basically boils down to the fact that uncertainty remains
not only on the timing, but all the track of the trough and
associated sfc low, which is still up for debate. Another thing
worth noting is once the sfc high pressure moves east of the
state Monday, southerly winds return and temperatures will
slightly rise. Highs are expected to be in the lower to middle
70s and overnight lows in the 50s, which will be much closer to
normal for this time of year.
Patterson
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 903 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Gusty west to northwest winds are expected today, with the
highest gusts for terminals near Lake Michigan. These winds will
gradually weaken tonight, as the strong low pressure system
moves well northeast of the area. Modest west northwest winds
are expected for Saturday.
Some sprinkles may occur today as scattered to broken
stratocumulus clouds with bases dropping to 2000 to 2500 feet
AGL track across southern WI between now and early afternoon.
These ceilings should rise to above 3500 feet AGL this afternoon
into tonight. There is a small chance for showers mainly this
evening northwest of Madison. There may be more shower chances
for Saturday afternoon, along with more broken stratocumulus
clouds with bases around 3500 feet AGL.
Wood/Cronce
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 903 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Widespread westerly gale force gusts will continue across the
open waters, tapering off from west to east between 10 AM and
Noon CDT. Observations showed gusts of 35 to 40 kt along the
nearshore between Sheboygan and Milwaukee around 8 AM, with a
peak gust of 45 kt at the Sheboygan C-MAN (tall observation
site). Thinking the winds will taper off just enough by 15Z/10AM
to allow the Gale Warning to be downgraded to a Small Craft
Advisory for the NSH areas, but we extended the Gale Warning for
the open waters until 17Z/Noon. This matches up with the end
time of the gale warnings that are in effect for the NSH waters
on the eastern side of Lake Michigan. The NSH small craft advy
for SE WI is in effect until mid evening.
Brisk westerly winds will linger through tonight as the low
tracks across James Bay. Winds will slowly weaken into Saturday,
then shift to the northwest Saturday night into Sunday, as high
pressure pushes through the region.
Some showers may occur at times over the northern portions of
Lake Michigan today and again later tonight into Saturday night,
with a few embedded thunderstorms. A few waterspouts may occur in
this area during this period.
Cronce
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Friday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM
     Friday.
Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until noon
     Friday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion