Dresden Station, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

443
FXUS61 KALY 201756
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
156 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to allow for clear skies and chilly
temperatures tonight, with frost across northern areas. Sunny
and comfortable weather will be in place again on Sunday.
During the upcoming week, there will be a chance for some much
needed rainfall towards the middle of the week, with
temperatures near or slightly above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
- Frost Advisory in effect again tonight into Sunday Morning
  for most areas north of I-90, except a Freeze Warning for
  Hamilton County.
Discussion:
As of 156 PM EDT...Surface high pressure (around 1030 mb) is
centered north of the area over western Quebec. This high
pressure area will slowly settle southeast for later today and
into tonight, moving across the North Country and across
northern New England for Sunday.
Visible satellite imagery shows nearly completely clear skies in
place, with just some thin cirrus clouds over the Mohawk
Valley, Capital, Sacandaga and Saratoga Regions. Although
daytime temperatures are lower than the past few days, they are
still very comfortable, with readings in the upper 60s to low
70s and dewpoints in the 30s and 40s.
With the high pressure nearby and clear skies in place,
temperatures will fall easily this evening and it will be a
rather chilly night for tonight. Most areas will fall into the
upper 30s to lower 40s, although some upper 20s to mid 30s are
expected for the Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and
southern Vermont. Frost Advisories are in effect for most
northern areas (except a Freeze Warning is in effect for the
central Adirondacks). Sensitive plants will need to be covered
or brought indoors, as the growing season is coming to an end
for northern regions.
On Sunday, dry, sunny and pleasant weather will continue with
high pressure still nearby. Temperatures will be a little milder
than Saturday, with valley areas back into the lower to middle
70s. A few more clouds are possible by Sunday night, but it will
still be mainly clear with a light southerly breeze, as the high
pressure departs off to the east. Lows won`t be quite as cool,
with overnight temps mainly in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After dry weather for the past several weeks, there will finally
be the potential for some rainfall during the long term period.
An upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will
bring the potential for some showers for Monday night into
Tuesday, especially for areas north and west of the Capital
Region. QPF doesn`t look too significant, with most areas likely
to see a under a third of an inch. NBM probability for 0.50"
inches range from about 25% over southern areas to around 50%
over the western Adirondacks.
Although high pressure may briefly return around Wednesday or
Thursday, another closed low over the Midwest will spread
towards the area for the late week. There remains uncertainty
regarding the exact timing of this feature and just how much
precip will occur, but there is at least a chance for some
additional showers for the late week with this system. Our area
has seen rainfall deficits of 1 to 3 inches over the last month
so any rainfall is much needed.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...High pressure in place across the region has
maintained VFR conditions at all terminals thus far today. A
continuation of such is expected with mostly to completely clear
skies persisting into the beginning of the overnight period. A
slight increase in high cirrus can be expected through the second
half of the night and into tomorrow morning, but these will be thin
enough to not allow ceilings to form. This should also allow fog to
form at least at KPSF where easterly flow will help advect moisture
into the terminal vicinity. Input a brief TEMPO group to account for
this possibility. It is possible, given the mainly clear conditions,
calm winds, and subsequent prime radiational cooling conditions that
KGFL could fog up as well, but very dry air in the low levels has
made this a low confidence portion of the forecast. Input a TEMPO
for MVFR conditions to account for the possibility but will monitor
trends in future iterations. Winds throughout the period will be
light and variable with sustained speeds remaining below 10 kt.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ032-041>043-083-084.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ033.
MA...None.
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion