Dresden, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

711
FXUS63 KFGF 212357
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer then average through the week with dry weather
  expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered rain showers and weak thunderstorms in northwest
Minnesota are waning with the loss of daytime heating.
Fog is expected to develop during the early morning hours in
portions of Minnesota, including into portions of lakes country
of west- central Minnesota toward the Red Lakes and Lake of the
Woods areas. There is another area highlighted by guidance near
the Pembina Escarpment of northeast ND for the development of
fog. Fog may be dense in these locations, with guidance like
HREF offering 30% chance for visibility reductions half a mile
or less.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Upper low rotating over our eastern counties will continue to
slowly drift eastward towards Lake Superior tonight. Still
getting some decent showers and even a few thunderstorms
developing across our eastern counties. Fortunately, surface
vorticity is much less than yesterday so think the main impacts
will be isolated lightning strikes and brief rain rather than
funnels. Some of the cumulus on the back side of the upper low
will dissipate later this evening, so at least part of the CWA
will see some clearing overnight. Fog development could again be
an issue, with the HREF showing 50 to 60 percent chance for some
spots to drop below half a mile in visibility, particularly
along our southern and eastern border. Still too soon to tell
exactly where and how dense fog will be, so just kept mention
going with no SPS or headlines.
The upper low will exit off to the east into the Great Lakes
tomorrow, with a secondary southern branch low extending with a
positive tilt well to our southwest. Blocking ridge sets up from
the Rockies into the Northern Plains, moving slightly eastward
towards the end of the work week. Ensembles still showing a
warmer than average signal for temperature, so highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s continue. Dry conditions with ridging
shifting to northwesterly flow. Several of the ensemble members
bring a shortwave into Ontario but all have the forcing too far
north to bring us much precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period, with
light winds generally less than 5 kt. The exception to this will
be the expectation of fog within the region between 08Z-15Z,
particularly locations near central Minnesota. This includes
KBJI, and drove the reason to include 1SM BR SCT003 within this
TAF. There is a 30% chance fog decreases visibility less than
half a mile.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion