Dry Fork Trail, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

284
FXUS65 KTFX 021724
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Today will be the last mild day for a while over the CWA.
- There will be a few passing showers today, but a better chance
  for showers and even a few stronger thunderstorms on Friday.
- Temperatures continue to cool over the weekend, with a chance
  for showers at lower elevations and snow in the mountains.
- A slow warming trend is expected by the middle of next week,
  along with mostly dry conditions from Mon thru Wed.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 1004 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025/
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to advect moisture and
lower end instability for increased shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity over the next couple of days. Given that
precipitable water values are expected to rise to the three
quarters to one inch mark, the primary concern will be localized
heavy rain for a lower end risk (less than 5%) to burn scars over
central and southwest MT. Otherwise, the stronger cells may
produce gusty winds, occasional lightning, and perhaps some small
hail, mostly on Friday. - RCG
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 1004 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
An upper level low is currently off the coastline of the Pacific
Northwest. This upper level low won`t move much today, but will
start to move eastward on Friday. Thus expect a few passing light
showers today, mostly over the Rocky Mountain Front and across
Southwest MT. On Friday, as the upper level low starts to move
eastward, there will be a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially over Southwest MT. Additionally, a few
of the storms on Friday could be on the stronger side, mostly
south of a line from Helena to White Sulphur Springs.
On Saturday, and upper level disturbance will move southward along
the divide. Cooler air will accompany this disturbance. Rain and
snow will develop along the Rocky Mountain Front in the morning,
with the rain changing to snow during the day, as colder air moves
in from the north, also lowering the snow levels. Snow levels
start out around 7000 feet on Saturday morning, but lower to
around 4500 feet by Sunday morning. Light snow will impact Glacier
Park during the day on Saturday and into Saturday night. Over
Southwest MT, it will take a few more hours for the precipitation
to develop, but overall, Saturday afternoon and into Sunday
morning looks to be the wettest period for that portion of the
CWA. Precipitation amounts will also be higher over that portion
of the CWA as well. By midday Sunday, most of the precipitation
will be exiting the CWA.
Mild temperatures today will cool about 10 degrees each day over
the next few days. By Sunday, afternoon highs will only be in the
40s and 50s. Overnight lows go below freezing in many areas on
Sunday morning, but Monday morning could be even colder, with a
hard freeze likely for most areas.
For Monday through Thursday of next week...much of MT will be in
between storm system, thus it is looking mostly dry for much of
the first half of next week, along with a slow warming trend back
towards above normals temperatures by the middle portion of next
week.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main weather impacts over the next few days will be:
The thunderstorm potential on Friday over Southwest MT. Some
storms could produce stronger wind gusts, or even some hail,
because of the strength of the upper level system moving through.
For Saturday, accumulating snowfall of 1 to 4 inches could impact
the east side of Glacier Park and the Kings Hill area in Central
MT. There is a 45 percent chance that snow accumulations could
exceed 3 inches in these areas well. There is the potential that a
winter weather advisory might need to be issued for this event.
Further south, accumulating snowfall will also affect the
mountains of Southwest MT, with Madison and Gallatin counties
being most affected. There is a 60 percent chance that snow
accumulations could exceed 3 inches in the mountains of Madison
and Gallatin counties from Saturday night into Sunday, with snow
levels down to about 5500 feet over this portion of the state.
Winter weather statements are also possible for this portion of
the state this weekend as well. Brusda
&&
.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAF Period
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF
Period outside of during any thunderstorms. At the KBZN and KEKS
terminals there is a 15 - 30% chance for thunderstorms between now
and 03/03Z. Any thunderstorm will produce a brief heavy downpour,
lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. At the KEKS and KBZN terminals
there is a 20 - 40% chance for rain showers during the duration of
this TAF Period. At the KGTF and KHLN terminals there is a 20 - 50%
chance for rain showers between 02/21Z and 03/11Z. At the KCTB
terminal from 03/00Z through the end of the TAF Period there is a 20
- 40% chance for rain showers. At the KHVR terminal there is a 20  -
50% chance for rain showers between 03/02Z and 03/12Z. At the KLWT
terminal there is a 20 - 40% chance for rain showers between now and
03/11Z. Across Southwestern Montana there will be periods of
mountain obscuration during this TAF Period. -IG
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There will be increased shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
over the next couple of days, mostly over central and southwest
MT. While flooding is generally not expected, moisture levels will
be high enough to support rainfall rates up to or greater than a
quarter inch per hour. Flooding and or land slides over burn scars
can`t be ruled out should they undergo heavier downpours. - RCG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  74  48  64  44 /  30  60  70  50
CTB  67  42  60  39 /  10  40  40  10
HLN  71  48  64  45 /  40  70  80  70
BZN  72  43  71  42 /  40  40  30  80
WYS  66  35  64  34 /  30  20  40  90
DLN  67  42  68  41 /  50  50  60  80
HVR  74  47  69  43 /  10  50  60  30
LWT  72  45  70  43 /  40  40  20  80
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion