Duckwater, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

016
FXUS65 KLKN 190907
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
207 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
* Mostly cloudy today with a 20 to 30% chance of showers across
  Northern NV and a 50 to 70% chance of showers for Central NV.
* Drier air begins to move in from the West on Saturday, with a 20
  to 40% chance of afternoon showers across Eastern Nevada.
* Sunday, lingering moisture remains across Eastern Nevada and
  parts of Central Nevada in the morning with a 15-30% chance of
  showers, clearing out by the afternoon.
* Mostly sunny Monday.
* Another low pressure system expected to move across the
  southwest by Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Mostly cloudy conditions today across
central and northern Nevada as the remains of Tropical Storm Mario
becomes widespread. Rain showers are expected across central
Nevada throughout the day with chances up to 45-70% along with a
20-30% chance of thunderstorms. By the afternoon, moisture will
push into northern Nevada up to the I-80 corridor, giving chances
for showers at 20-40%, however thunderstorms chances remain low
for northern Nevada. Models are showing depth at higher
elevations, but little to no instability that would cause
thunderstorms for northern Nevada. By the evening, conditions
expected to dissipate but there may be some lingering overnight
showers. Saturday, moisture is expected to be more northeast with
Elko and White Pine County seeing 20-40% chances of showers in
the afternoon. Sunday, lingering moisture expected to still be
over northeastern Nevada and parts of central Nevada in the
morning with a 20-35% chance of showers, dissipating into clearer
skies by the afternoon to evening hours. Mostly sunny conditions
to start the next week from upper ridging, however by Wednesday
there increasing confidence with the models showing an off-cut-low
moving over the southwest and into Nevada, but the strength of the
system remains uncertain. Clearer conditions by Thursday.
Cooler temperatures over the weekend with highs in the 70s,
followed by a brief warmup at the start of next week in the upper
70s to low 80s, then cooler into the 70s by Wednesday. Winds
expected to be light.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes to the grids at this
time. Greater confidence of Saturday and Sunday POPs with respect
to chances for rain showers. Greater certainty with the position
of the off-cut-low on Wednesday, however uncertainty remains on
strength.
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will create
intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions through Friday evening for
all terminals. Precipitation is forecasted to begin early morning
for terminals KWMC, KEKO, KBAM, KELY, and KTPH. Gusty southerly winds
Friday afternoon for terminals KEKO, KELY, and KTPH will range
18-22KTs. Thunderstorm activity is possible for terminals KTPH and
KELY on Friday. KTPH will see thunderstorm activity from mid
morning through Friday evening, while KELY will see storm activity
more so in the afternoon and evening hours. CIGs at KTPH will
lower to near 3000ft Friday afternoon. Shower activity will not
reach KENV until early Friday evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Remains of Tropical Storm Mario will bring 50-70% chances for
wetting rains across fire zones 425, 426, 427, and southern part
of 424 early today. By the afternoon, chances for wetting rain
will reach into rest of zone 424 and southern half of 438 and 469
while all other areas remain below 20% chance for rain. 20-30%
chance for thunderstorms over the southern fire zones today. For
the northern zones, models are showing little to no instability,
providing little to no thunderstorm chances, however some
thunderstorms over central Nevada may make its way north. Winds
remain relatively light however possible gusty erratic winds from
downdrafts of passing storms. Saturday, chances for wetting rains
more widespread with 20-45% chance over fire zones 425, 438, 469,
and 470 in the afternoon.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...97

NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion