Dudley, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

553
FXUS63 KFGF 012000
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
300 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued unseasonably warm temperatures thru end of the week.
- Chances for rain increase this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...Synopsis...
Southwesterly flow aloft continues with the shortwave that
brought this morning`s convection moving off into Ontario, but
another shortwave currently over western SD expected to come
into the Red River Valley tonight. Several of the models still
break out some precipitation along the weakening surface trough
as the shortwave comes through, but at this point it seems there
will be less elevated CAPE to work with and still very little
shear. HREF updraft helicity tracks do not show much strong
convection developing tonight but will continue to monitor. The
upper ridge amplifies a bit Thursday night into Friday over the
upper midwest and as the previous shift stated, the cold front
arrival is delayed a bit more. The hotter than average
temperatures look to continue through the end of the work week
and into the start of the weekend. By Sunday, a vigorous upper
trough will start to dig into the northern Plains, with the
surface low and cold front swinging through. The trough will
continue into the first part of next week before brief ridging
builds in next Wednesday.
...Unseasonably warm early October...
With the upper ridge not starting to really move off into the
Great Lakes until Saturday, ensembles are in good agreement on a
signal for warmer than normal temperatures continuing into the
weekend. While not certain there will be records broken every
day, there is high confidence in 15 to 20 degrees above normal
for highs. Probabilities for above 80 degrees are very high from
the NBM across most of our area, and parts of the southern Red
River Valley have 30 to 40 percent chance of getting above 90
both Friday and Saturday. Even the lows we are expecting
through Saturday are above our average highs for the first part
of October. Cold front coming through Sunday should finally
knock us back to more seasonable averages through the first part
of next week.
...Showers and thunderstorms this weekend...
Moisture will not be quite as strong as the heat for Friday and
Saturday, but still, dew points should be high enough for at
least a 50 percent chance for CAPE values above 1000 J/kg,
particularly in the south and the east. Deep layer shear will be
improving as the upper trough starts to dig down over the
weekend, up to 40-50 kts. CIPs analogs are not very bullish on
severe probabilities, but the machine learning shows some
potential, particularly the Pangu and Fengwu which have 15 to
30 percent probabilities in parts of our CWA. Too soon to start
messaging severe impacts for the weekend, but will continue to
keep an eye on how things evolve.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Convection has moved north of
the airports and additional cells this afternoon and tonight are
too isolated to include in the TAFs at this point. Winds will
continue to gust above 30 kts in some locations this afternoon,
then start to settle down a bit around sunset. Winds will start
to come down to less than 10 kts and shift more to a
southwesterly direction, although some low level wind shear will
be possible for a period overnight at the MN airports.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion