Duncan, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

309
FXUS65 KTWC 110922
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
222 AM MST Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms continue each afternoon
and evening through Friday, mainly near and east of Tucson and
Nogales through the New Mexico border. Gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, blowing dust, and lightning will be the main hazards. Outside
of thunderstorms expect breezy winds each afternoon with high
temperatures coming down a few degrees through Friday. Still some
lingering slight thunderstorm chances Saturday south and east of
Tucson but otherwise drier conditions through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Clear skies this morning across southeast Arizona as
the region remains under southwesterly flow aloft between west coast
troughing and high pressure aloft across Texas. This places our area
under a favorable moist flow between these systems with PWAT values
high enough (around 1 to 1.2 inches) to result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. The pattern is
overall very close to what we experienced yesterday as the features
aloft driving our weather remain in similar positions. With that
said, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms (25-40 percent
chances) from the Tucson area and points eastward this afternoon and
evening. While brief locally heavy rain is possible, individual
storm motions around 20 mph will reduce the flash flooding threat.
The main concerns will once again be gusty winds (and blowing dust)
given the relatively dry sub-cloud layer. Outside of thunderstorm
influences, expect some breezes with gusts around 25-30 mph
expected.
Not much change on Friday, though the trough gradually nudging
eastward will push the highest thunderstorm chances (generally 30-
50 percent) across Cochise/Graham/Greenlee Counties with the Tucson
area on the western edge of the activity (~20 percent).
A more notable change this weekend as drier air continues to build
in from the west as the trough finally ejects eastward. Still enough
lingering moisture for slight chances of thunderstorms (around 10-20
percent) in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties. Temperatures Saturday
will cool down to about 3 to 5 degrees below normal levels. Dry
conditions are expected Sunday for the entire forecast area.
The weekend drying will be short lived as the moisture only briefly
gets pushed to our south and east. As the flow becomes more
southerly next week that will allow northward moisture transport
with thunderstorm chances once again returning to the forecast. Near
normal temperatures are expected early to mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z. Mainly SKC thru 11/18Z, then SCT-
BKN cumulus with 8k-11k foot bases and scattered -SHRA/-TSRA mainly
near and east of KTUS-KOLS between 11/19Z and 12/04Z. sty and
erratic winds to 45 kts possible with any thunderstorm, otherwise
surface winds southwesterly 10-18 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts
through 12/04Z. Winds then become light and terrain driven thru the
end of the valid period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum relative humidities mainly 25-40 percent
through Saturday, then lowering into the 15-30 percent range early
next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Tucson area
eastward today and Friday with slight chances of thunderstorms south
and east of Tucson Saturday. Dry area-wide Sunday then thunderstorm
chances return once again next work week. Gusty and erratic winds
are expected with thunderstorms. Otherwise, outside of
thunderstorms, expect breezy southwesterly winds each afternoon
through Friday with sustained winds of 10-18 mph and gusts of 25-30
mph. High temperatures generally near normal with slightly below
normal temperatures Saturday.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion