Dunning, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

340
FXUS63 KLBF 070936
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
436 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An isolated strong storm could move across parts of far
  southwest Nebraska this evening.
- A warming trend develops today with warmer temperatures to
  continue the remainder of the week.
- Elevated fire weather concerns develop Monday and Tuesday west
  of Highway 83.
- Increasing chances for showers/thunder develop Wednesday and
  continue through the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
As surface high pressure shifts farther eastward today, southerly
low-level flow will increase. Low-level moisture will be pulled
northward with dew points rising into the mid 50s to lower 60s. This
will help minimize any fire weather concerns despite the warmer
temperatures and increasing south winds. A weak upstream disturbance
currently located across western Wyoming will track toward the area
this afternoon and evening. Isolated to widely scattered late
afternoon convection is expected to develop across the higher
elevation/Laramie Range across eastern Wyoming. CAMs track some of
this convection southeastward into the Panhandle and northeast
Colorado by this evening. Instability does increase by this
afternoon due to the increasing dew points/humidity. Mid-level lapse
rates are marginally steep with around 25-30 kts of 0-6km shear.
Some storm organization will be possible in this environment this
evening...potentially skirting the far southwest part of Nebraska.
Confidence is low regarding anything more than isolated storm
coverage, and will keep pops at slight chance.
Fire weather concerns increase Monday in portions of western
Nebraska, west of Highway 83 across the western Sandhills and into
the Panhandle. A weak surface trough will mix eastward to near
Highway 83 by afternoon, with west to northwest winds behind the
trough advecting drier air into western Nebraska. Humidity values
will fall to between 23-28% as winds gust to around 20 mph, and high
temperatures reaching well into the 80s. More of the same Tuesday,
with again some fire weather concerns west of Highway 83. At this
time no critical conditions are expected either day, but elevated
conditions are expected to develop both Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A pattern shift occurs Wednesday through the end of the week. A Long
wave trough will become established across the western CONUS.
Winds aloft will become southwesterly across our region ahead
of this feature. As southerly low-level flow increases as leeward
troughing deepens across the western high plains. A stream of
modified Gulf air will move northward across the area, which
will limit fire weather concerns.
Rain chances will begin to increase as several disturbances
move northeastward across the area within the southwest flow
aloft. The threat for widespread severe weather seems low at
this time, with the flow aloft remaining fairly weak. PWATS
increase significantly however, and a localized heavy rain
could develop. Otherwise temperatures look to remain warm, with
highs though the period in the lower to mid 80s. Lows will be
above average with the increased moisture/humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Increasing moisture may lead to a period of low stratus with
MVFR CIGs for southwest Nebraska terminals early Sunday morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday
night across western and north central Nebraska.
Winds become southerly early Sunday morning and strengthen
Sunday afternoon. Gusts of 20 to 25kts from the south are
possible Sunday afternoon and evening.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion