Dusty, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

578
FXUS64 KEPZ 051136 AAA
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
536 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
- Temperatures remain near or a few degrees above normal through
   the week.
- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of
   the week, favoring northern areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 944 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
As the upper trough exits to the east tonight, skies clear out for
Sunday. SW flow aloft will keep dry air in place for the short-term
with some lingering moisture and mid clouds over eastern areas.
With a surface low sitting over NE NM and modest isobar packing,
winds stay on the breezy side at generally 10-15 mph for the
afternoon, a bit stronger over Sierra County.
On Monday, a weak backdoor front moves into the region, bringing
additional moisture into midweek. The front makes a slow progression
westward through midweek, increasing PWs to well above normal
Tue/Wed (1-1.1"); average PWs are around 0.6". Rain chances will
be favored in northern areas mainly on Tue where dynamics are
better closer to the frontal boundary. A few thunderstorms may
develop as well with some instability present. Modestly breezy
E-SE winds (10-15 mph) are forecast for Tuesday behind the front.
The forecast trends drier later in the week as the global ensembles
indicate the elongated upper ridge centralizing over northern Mexico
from the east. This will cap most if not all convection even with
some leftover moisture trapped underneath the high. Dry
conditions are expected after Wed. Winds will be light to modestly
breezy each day through the forecast, mainly from the east.
Temperatures won`t change much behind the front, up to 5 degrees
cooler on Tuesday. Highs will remain near or a few degrees above
normal through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period with typical
aftn breezes.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Dry southwest flow aloft will persist again today. Localized
elevated fire weather conditions will favor the northern portion
of the forecast area today, where minRH will fall below 15 percent
in the presence of wind gusts around 20 to 30 MPH. Moisture will
improve slightly each day through the week, bringing all zones
above critical thresholds. Chances for precipitation will
increase Monday night into Tuesday as a weak backdoor front surges
southward and westward across the plains. Breezy easterly winds
will prevail during the day but much-improved humidity will help
to temper any elevated fire weather conditions. Very isolated
chances for thunderstorms favoring the high terrain the remainder
of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  92  70  89 /   0   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca            59  87  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               58  86  62  84 /   0   0  10  10
Alamogordo               60  87  62  84 /   0   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               44  64  46  61 /   0  10  10  30
Truth or Consequences    54  84  58  81 /   0   0  10  10
Silver City              51  79  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                   55  88  61  88 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg                55  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10
Dell City                61  90  62  86 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             67  93  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               61  82  62  80 /   0   0  10  10
Fabens                   64  92  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             61  87  66  86 /   0   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           63  87  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
Jornada Range            58  86  62  84 /   0   0  10  10
Hatch                    55  89  60  87 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                 59  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                58  86  63  83 /   0   0  10  10
Mayhill                  49  75  50  70 /   0  10  10  30
Mescalero                48  77  50  73 /   0  10  10  30
Timberon                 48  73  49  70 /   0   0  10  20
Winston                  44  78  48  76 /   0   0  10  20
Hillsboro                53  84  57  82 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport                54  85  59  84 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             45  79  49  79 /   0   0  10  10
Hurley                   50  82  55  81 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                    51  85  56  86 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               48  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  53  81  58  80 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                   55  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           55  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion