Dutton, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

589
FXUS65 KTFX 050519
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1119 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty winds continue through the afternoon until weakening this
  evening.
- Cooler temperatures are expected today and Friday before a warmup
  this weekend.
- A more active period sets up starting Sunday, with daily chances
  for precipitation next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 857 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025/
With tranquil weather across North Central and Southwestern
Montana, there isn`t much to change with the evening update. Main
thing I did was nudge temperatures down a little bit. While I
normally wouldn`t do this, I could see a few of the colder spots
seeing a light frost overnight tonight, and given that it could be
some area`s first frost I did add some frost to the forecast
across the lower elevations. Ludwig
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 857 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
The cold front will continue to advance southward across Southwest
MT, bringing gusty winds and smoke along with it. Winds will keep
decreasing throughout the afternoon and evening with this
southward progression of the front. This will also allow for some
relief with smoke across North-Central MT. This front has brought
cooler temperatures to the region for today and Friday.
This upper-level ridge will continue to push to the east as this
trough builds along the Pacific coast. This shift has been trending
a little slower than previous forecasted. This has trended
Saturday now on the drier side, with precipitation being
confined towards the MT/ID border. This trough will keep building
over the weekend and into next week, slowly shifting east. This
will help advect in warmer, and moister air back into the state.
The pattern shifts to a more active and wetter with daily slight
chances for precipitation. Ensembles are unsure how to
evolve/progress this trough in terms of strength and timing, so
details become uncertain later in the forecast period.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
In terms of showers and thunderstorms this weekend, they should stay
on the weaker side besides a few typical strong dry outflow winds.
Better chances for precipitation remains in Southwest MT for the
weekend, with precipitation expanding more towards the North-
Central MT plains Tuesday and Wednesday. Since there is a little
variation still in the progression of this trough, details for mid
next week remain uncertain. -Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
05/06Z TAF Period
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF
Period. However there is a low chance (

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion