Eagle Cap Wilderness, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

234
FXUS66 KPDT 111723
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1023 AM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Updated Aviation Discussion
.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Mostly VFR conditions to prevail through
the period. An upper weather system moving through the area will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the
mountains. Currently, showers moving over sites RDM/BDN are
expected to produce MVFR or lower conditions, with showers moving
out by 19Z. Otherwise, thunderstorm chances were too low (10-20%)
at sites PDT/ALW/RDM to include mention, however, have introduced
a prob30 for this afternoon/evening at site BDN. Winds will be
mostly light, 12kts or less, through the period...exception being
site DLS where winds will increase to 12-20kts with gusts 20-30kts
this afternoon and evening. Lawhorn/82
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025/
DISCUSSION...Areas of showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop later in the afternoon. Current coverage shows a couple
of isolated showers moving across the mountainous areas with some
pockets of thunder embedded. Main threats today will be locally
heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail from the strongest storms.
Flash Flood watches (mainly for scar burns) are in effect through
the next day. WPC issued MRGL (at least 5%) for excessive
rainfall through Friday morning in parts of the Southern Blues.
Areas across that region is expected to receive anywhere from a
half inch to an inch and half (65-85% chance). This will cause
some concerns for debris flow floods going through the next day.
Parts of the South- Central Washington will be on the much drier
side, receiving up to a tenth of an inch (50-70% chance) going
through the next day. Temps will stay cooler going through the
week, continuing the relief from the heat we saw last week.
As the trough moves on from the area, rain coverage will decrease
heading closer to the weekend. Friday will be much drier, with
showers and thunderstorms concentrated towards the East Mountains
and Wallowa`s (65-75% chance). We`ll get a break from the
convection on Saturday as the trough moves out and a short-stayed
ridge moves over the PacNW. This break will prove to be short
lived as another low follows shortly behind it. Another wave will
push into the region Sunday, but does not appear to be as robust
as the system from what we`ll see today and tomorrow. Clusters are
agreement that we`ll re-enter another wet pattern during the
beginning of next week, but to what extent remains to be
undetermined since confidence in guidance plummets after Sunday.
Regardless, temperatures will remain near to just below normal for
the next several days and we`ll have to pay attention how next
week unfolds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  57  82  55 /  50  20  10   0
ALW  82  61  83  60 /  50  30  10   0
PSC  84  58  85  55 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  87  56  86  55 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  84  58  84  56 /  30  10   0   0
ELN  84  54  83  51 /  10  10   0   0
RDM  74  45  79  45 /  60  30   0   0
LGD  77  51  78  50 /  70  50  30  10
GCD  73  50  78  50 /  70  40  20   0
DLS  80  59  82  56 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ORZ503-505-506.
WA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...82

NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion