Eagle Point, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

218
FXUS66 KMFR 211238
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
538 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.DISCUSSION...The short term forecast remains on track. Rain
showers are arriving on the Oregon coast and moving over western
Douglas County ahead of an approaching cold front. While rain
showers are not expected over other inland areas, this front will
help to keep temperatures cool today. A Frost Advisory remains in
place for areas east of the Cascades including Klamath Falls and
Alturas for tonight into Monday morning, due to the cold air mass
following the front. Areas in northern Lake and Klamath counties
will also see cold nighttime temperatures.
An upper ridge looks to remain the guiding influence to start
next week. Drier conditions and warmer temperatures are expected,
with NBM probabilistic guidance showing 90-100% chances for
Medford to experience 90 degree temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
The latest model guidance suggests some uncertainty for beyond
midweek. Deterministic imagery shows zonal flow developing as the
upper ridge breaks down, which would help to bring temperatures
down somewhat to end the week. Hints of active weather remain
farther out in the future, but with only scattered signals in
meteogram guidance offering slight support. -TAD
&&
.AVIATION...21/12Z TAFs...MVFR ceilings continue along the coast
this morning, with IFR to LIFR levels possible as a cold front
approaches the area. Showers over coastal counties and into Douglas
County may also bring periods of locally lower ceilings and
visibilities. These areas are expected to see VFR levels under high
ceilings later this afternoon, once the front has moved farther east.
Areas farther inland will remain at VFR levels through the day. East
side areas will see gusty afternoon and evening winds as the front
moves continues to move to the east. -TAD
&&
.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Saturday, September 20, 2025...A
passing cold front will bring increased northwesterly swell and
chances for marine showers, but overall conditions look to remain
below advisory levels through this afternoon. A thermal trough
starts to develop this evening, bringing gusty northerly winds to
area waters. These winds will be strongest south of Cape Blanco and
will build steep seas in this area from late tonight through Monday
afternoon. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are
possible south of Gold Beach.
Gusty northerly winds increase on Monday evening, with current
forecasting showing steep seas building as far north as Reedsport
from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Elevated terrain,
especially east of the Cascades, will see gusty afternoon and
evening winds as the front continues to move eastward. -TAD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, September 20, 2025...
Moisture continues to stream northward into the area today and this
will touch off a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Today`s activity will once again focus across
NorCal and east of the Cascades, but with a slight shift to the SE
compared to the activity the last 2 days. Isolated showers could
linger into the overnight over the East Side, but most of the
activity will diminish by late this evening.
On Sunday, a cold front will move through with some light
rain/drizzle along the coast and into NW Douglas County, but
precipitation will fizzle at the mountains as the front presses
inland. Aside from a stray shower or thunderstorm (10-15%
chance) preceding the front over Modoc and/or southeast Lake County,
the frontal passage will be a dry one east of the Cascades. Gusty
afternoon west winds are possible there though where RAWS guidance
continues to show peak late PM/eve wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range
for some of the typically windier sites. Some west side valleys too
could have breezy winds for a time Sunday afternoon/evening.
Upper ridging builds Monday and Tuesday, so it will dry out and warm
up. That said, there will be some cool to chilly mornings with steep
inversions (coldest east of the Cascades with temps possibly down
near freezing). There should be a period of N-NW through E-NE winds
(not too strong) on the upper slopes/ridges Sunday night/Monday
(with good RH recovery), then again Monday night/Tuesday with poor
to moderate RH recovery (winds should be a lighter). RHs continue to
trend downward Tuesday with some single digit MinRH possible as
temps peak in the upper 90s west of the Cascades and in the
mid-upper 80s over the East Side.
A closed upper low will wobble into the Great Basin to our south and
east Wed-Fri largely maintaining the upper ridge across southern
Oregon and NorCal. Some moisture will try to come north through the
Sierra and may edge far enough north to touch off a thunderstorm in
far SE sections either Wed or Thu PM/Eve (again 10-15% probs), but
overall, it will remain dry and warm. The air mass should modify
some west of the Cascades during this stretch (especially Thu/Fri),
so, it won`t be quite as hot as earlier in the week, but still above
normal. -Spilde
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 213 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025/
DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Overview:
Overall, weather hazards and impacts are forecast to be minimal, but
we do have a threat of isolated thunderstorms today and tomorrow, as
well as a threat of frost Sunday night behind a cold front. It
should be noted that Monday morning will be cold for eastside areas
with our typical cold spots in Klamath County below freezing in some
areas which is not out of the ordinary as these areas typically
have a very short growing season. After this weekend, unseasonably
warm temperatures are anticipated, especially Tuesday afternoon
when some areas will be close to triple digits. Next week sure
changed from widepsread precipitation chances to our current dry
forecast. This changed occured on Thursday and hasn`t shifted back
to a wetter pattern, so we will need to keep an eye on fuels for
fire weather after this drying trend.
Further Details:
An upper H5 low off the coast of California will provide divergence
aloft this afternoon. This combined with convective temperatures
likely being reached this afternoon could lead to isolated showers
and thunderstorms (~20%) across northern California and areas east
of the Cascades in Oregon. Not expecting much in regards to
precipitation as there will be dry air to overcome as seen with
inverted-v profiles. Main threats today will be lightning but an
isolated strong outflow is not out of the question.
A broader and stronger area of cyclonic rotation over the Gulf of
Alaska will push into the region and force the aforementioned low
south. A cold front will pass through the region on Sunday which
will result in more widespread rainfall chances along/near the
coast, the Umpqua Basin, and part of Josephine County. While
rainfall will be more widespread, we are not expecting much in
regards to amounts, but a few areas could see amounts near a tenth
of an inch. However, the probability for any area to receive 0.10"
or greater of rainfall is only 40 percent, so this isn`t going to be
a widespread wetting rainfall event by any means. The cold front
will also usher in a colder airmass, and areas on the eastside in
particular could see a threat of frost/freeze. A Frost Advisory
is in effect Monday morning for the Lower Klamath Basin (includes
Klamath Falls) and parts of Modoc County in and around the Alturas
area. Anyone with sensitive vegetation may want to cover or
protect plants that could be damaged from these cold temperatures.
Thereafter, a low will slide south from this broader area of
cyclonic rotation, and traverse along the Rockies over into the
Central/Southern Plains. This will set the stage for an Omega Block
type of pattern over the Conus by Wednesday, while a westerly jet
stream will be noted over much of southern Canada. This split flow
pattern will stick around through next Saturday. This will result in
above normal temperatures and dry conditions through this
stagnant pattern.
-Guerrero
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Frost Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday for
     ORZ028-029.
CA...Frost Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday for
     CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 5
     PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion