East Brunswick High School New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

304
FXUS61 KPHI 140543
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
143 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The coastal low that has been bringing impacts to the region
will continue to move eastward through today. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday, with strong high pressure
building in to close out the week. A low pressure system may
approach from the west late this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the remainder of the night, we stay breezy, especially for
coastal areas. Wind gusts are 20-30 mph inland and 30-35 mph near
the coast. There is still a decent amount of low-level moisture in
place resulting in a continuation of areas of drizzle and light
rain. Our coastal storm will continue to weaken and move away from
the coast through today. This will take a lot of the precip
with it.
During the day today, most of the precip is located closer to
the coastal areas as the low continues to depart. Some guidance
shows wrap around moisture continuing to lead to pockets of
drizzle or light rain across parts of the area but the best
potential for this looks to remain near the coast. What remains
stubborn through today is the cloud cover. We continue to stay
mostly cloudy during the day before seeing a decrease in the
clouds into tonight from west to east. Our winds stay breezy
with gusts around 20 mph inland and 25-30 mph near the coast.
Highs today are in the 60s.
For tonight, some drier air moves in from the west which allows
the cloud cover to decrease and the drying trend continues
across the area. Winds are still elevated a bit into tonight
with inland gusts 15-20 mph and coastal areas 20-30 mph. Lows
overnight are in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
To start the period, a large upper-trough will be located to
the east over the Western Atlantic, with a closed upper-low over
Quebec. Significant ridging will be in place over the South
Central US. This will place our region under enhanced
northwesterly flow aloft. The upper-low over Quebec will
gradually open into Wednesday night, and take the form of a
digging trough to our east. At the surface, the coastal low will
continue to track away from the area Tuesday night. A cold
front will approach and push through the area during the day on
Wednesday. After the cold front has passed, strong high pressure
will shift southeastward from the Great Lakes and into our
region.
Residual clouds Tuesday night will likely be confined to near
the NJ and DE coasts, and should diminish completely overnight.
Low temperatures Tuesday night look to be in the upper 40s
across the Poconos and into far northern NJ, near 50 across the
remainder of eastern PA and NJ outside of the urban corridor and
coastal regions, and in the mid 50s for the urban corridor,
coastal regions, and the Delmarva.
The cold frontal passage on Wednesday should be dry, with only
some modest increase in cloud cover. Ahead of the front across
southeastern PA, the southern half of NJ, and the Delmarva,
temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to near 70. Behind the
front across our northern PA counties and far northern NJ,
temperatures may struggle to reach 60. Lows Wednesday night will
range from the upper 30s to near 40 across most of eastern PA
and NJ to the low 40s across the Delmarva. Despite the cold air
advection, breezy north winds will likely preclude any frost or
freeze concerns.
Thursday looks to be a chilly day under mostly clear skies and
a continued breezy north wind. Highs will range from the upper
50s to lower 60s areawide. Thursday night looks to be a better
radiational cooling night with lowering winds. Low temperatures
will likely fall into the mid 30s for eastern PA and much of NJ,
slightly cooler for the higher elevations and slightly warmer
for the urban corridor, coastal areas, and the Delmarva. A
freeze is possible for northern areas, though this will depend
on how much the northerly breeze diminishes.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A progressive pattern looks to take shape during the extended
period. The trough to the east will track away from the area
while a ridge axis over central portions of the US approaches.
The ridge axis is expected to be over our area Saturday. Beyond
this, models suggest a trough will begin shifting into our area
Sunday. At the surface, strong high pressure will initially be
in control. A surface cyclone and associated cold front may
bring unsettled weather to the area Sunday into Monday.
Friday and Saturday look to feature fair weather and a warming
trend, with below average temperatures Friday into Friday night
and near normal temperatures Saturday into Saturday night.
Overall, these look like the two best weather days of the next
week.
Cloud cover and associated rain chances will begin to increase
on Sunday. Right now, PoPs looks to be in the chance (30% or
greater) to likely (60% or greater) range, particularly Sunday
night. There is plenty of inherent uncertainty at this range,
but there could be enough instability present to support a few
thunderstorms. Based on current timing in model guidance, PoPs
decrease by Monday afternoon, but again this is subject to
change. Temperatures Sunday into Sunday night appear slightly
above average,and near normal on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions due to low CIGS. VSBY
restrictions remain possible at times for BR/DZ. NNE winds
around 10 kt at KRDG/KABE, and 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt
gusts at the other terminals. KACY may occasionally still gust
to near 30 kt. Moderate confidence on low CIGS with low
confidence of VSBY restrictions.
Tuesday...IFR ceilings early, improving to MVFR ceilings by
mid-late morning. Gradual improvement to VFR possible after
18Z-20Z from west to east. NNE winds around 10-15 kt with
occasional gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate-high confidence.
Tuesday night...Mainly VFR with CIGS lifting and scattering out. Sub-
VFR conditions will be possible in residual low clouds
for KACY/KMIV initially. Moderate-high confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.
&&
.MARINE...
North-northeast winds continue today, but will begin to subside
by the afternoon with winds mainly between 20-25 kt with
occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas of around 8-12 feet continue
today. Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle likely through
today. Winds decrease tonight to 15-20 knots with gusts around
25 knots. SCAs will be needed for wind and persistent seas of
6-8 feet.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Friday...SCA conditions are likely to
continue. While winds may briefly fall below 25 kt on Wednesday,
they are expected to increase again to 20-30 kt Wednesday
night. Winds will likely begin to diminish on Friday. Seas will
remain elevated through much of Friday, gradually decreasing
from 6-10 feet to 4-6 feet. Seas are expected to decrease below
5 feet by Friday evening.
Friday night through Saturday...No marine headlines expected.
Winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Updated the tide forecasts based on current tidal departures.
No changes made to the coastal flood warnings and advisories.
With the latest update, the only site still forecast to get to
major flooding is Barnegat Inlet and southern portions of
Barnegat Bay. Otherwise, moderate flooding is expected for the
remainder of the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, Delaware Bay,
and southern shores of the Raritan Bay. Minor tidal flooding is
expected on the tidal Delaware River with this evening`s high
tide, where a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect.
Additional beach erosion and dune breaching are possible along
the entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches due to the
very high/dangerous surf conditions through today.
It looks as if the high tide later today will be the last tide
of significant concern. There may minor tidal flooding with the
high tide tonight and especially tomorrow. However, we will have
a better idea the degree and extent of minor tidal flooding
with those cycles once we see the tidal departure trends with
today`s high tide.
That being said, given the nature of this event, tidal flooding
impacts could linger longer on back bays such as Barnegat Bay
in NJ and the Indian River Bay, Rehoboth Bay, and Little
Assawoman Bay in DE.
No tidal flooding is expected for our eastern shore counties
along Chesapeake Bay.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020-
     026-027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ022>025.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ003-004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431-451>455.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ450.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cooper
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/Guzzo
MARINE...Cooper/Guzzo
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion