East Kingsford Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

438
FXUS63 KMQT 101100
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
700 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wave of widespread light to moderate rain moves west to east
  today, followed by lake effect rain showers across the east
  half.
- N to NW gale force gusts 35 to 40 kts will be common this
  afternoon (50-80% chance), mainly in and around the Keweenaw
  Peninsula and central/eastern Lake Superior shorelines.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Early morning GOES satellite imagery and RAP mesoA reveal a sharp
shortwave trough descending southeast over far western Ontario,
reflecting a ~1010mb sfc low closer to the Hudson Bay. Midlevel warm
air advection associated with a 30-40kt LLJ is supporting a wave of
light to moderate precip marching eastward across the western UP.
Breezy S winds have kept temps from dipping lower than the mid 40s
to 50. Today, the aforementioned wave drops south and east, pressing
the current wave of rain eastward through the day before ultimately
tapering off with the system`s dry slot/cold front. A reinforcing
shot of cold air aloft will help drive some additional lake
effect/enhanced showers that may linger across the east half through
the evening. As lake enhanced inversion heights decrease tonight as
ridging and high pressure filter in from the west, expect a decrease
to any showers or upslope enhancement. While the first wave of
precip will be relatively widespread, heavy rainfall totals are not
anticipated. NBM probability of amounts >0.5" reach 50-75% from
Munising to the Soo where lake effect showers may provide a local
boost, but fall off to 30% or lower with S and W extent. What may be
of more impact is gusty winds potentially reaching and or exceeding
40 mph across Lake Superior, the Keweenaw Peninsula, and the
adjacent lakeshores of the central and eastern UP. Ensemble and NBM
guidance continue to suggest frequent NW to N gusts 35-40 mph are
likely this afternoon, mainly in and around the Keweenaw, supported
by efficient mixing into stronger winds aloft and stout pressure
rises behind the SE trailing sfc low.
After rain wraps up, expect dry weather into the weekend as a ridge
builds over the area once more. Daytime highs Saturday look to peak
near 60F and then widespread mid 60s Sunday. Broad troughing begins
to establish itself across the Northern Rockies and the initial wave
lifting northeast from the base results in a surface low lifting
from the Dakotas into Manitoba Sunday. A warm front associated with
this system presses into the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night followed
by its cold front Monday. Rain looks to move into the region thanks
to these features Sunday evening then gradually taper through the
day Monday. This will also lead to another period of gusty winds
Sunday into Monday courtesy of a tight pressure gradient. Another
high looks to build across the region afterwards through the middle
of next week before the next low lifts out of the Central Plains.
Temperatures run cooler after Monday with highs in the 50s and lows
in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KIWD in this TAF period.
Gusty winds of 20-25kts will also be possible today. At KCMX, rain
showers may result in MVFR ceilings, mainly this afternoon, but VFR
conditions are expected by this evening. Wind gusts may climb to 30-
35 kts this afternoon from the northwest or north. KSAW is likely to
remain VFR for a majority of the day, with a trend toward MVFR or
maybe IFR tonight. Gusty winds of 20-25kts are also expected for a
majority of today and this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Impactful marine weather is expected today as a low pressure system
drops SE from Ontario across Lake Superior this afternoon. Breezy S
winds 20-30 kts sharply veer NW then N this afternoon along the
system`s cold front. Gale force gusts 35-40 kts will be common
behind the frontal passage, mainly across the north-central lake
around the Keweenaw Peninsula, as well as the open waters from the
Keweenaw to north of Picture Rocks Nat`l Lakeshore. Significant wave
heights will build between 4-8 ft. Incoming high pressure in the
wake of the passing system will work to lower winds below gale force
then below 25 kts tonight into Saturday. While calmer seas prevail
Saturday, a developing low pressure in the N Plains will increase S
winds Sunday and Monday. Currently, guidance suggests a 40-80%
chance for S gales both days.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ242>244-263-
     264.
Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for LSZ245>250-265-266.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...BW

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion