East Palatka, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

867
FXUS62 KJAX 081332
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
932 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Sfc data show frontal boundary is gradually moving into northeast
FL with winds in coastal southeast GA reflecting the increased
northeast winds. Fernandina Beach area was showing winds of 15G24
MPH recently and mayport was about 20 mph at 9 AM. Shower activity
along the coastal areas has been pretty scant so far, but is increasing
over the coastal waters as the front presses southward. Visible
imagery shows scattered to broken cumulus/stratocumulus increasing
as we would expect from coastal areas of northeast FL to coastal
southeast GA. PWATs are about 1.97 inches on the 12z JAX sounding
with slight cooling aloft noted at 500 mb. Warm cloud depth still
about 13 kft, favorable for efficient rainfall production.
Given the slow start to the precip, have diminished initial rain
chances a bit and leveled them off for the rest of today. Still
anticipate some locally heavy rainfall later today, mainly
including portions of eastern Duval, Clay, Putnam, St Johns, and
Flagler counties. Rainfall amounts up to about 2-3 inches possible
in the heavier storms. The chance of about 3.5 to 4 inches looks
to be fairly low at 10-20 percent into the evening hours. However,
persistent shower activity overnight could result in locally
heavy rainfall/downpours again, and so repeated rainfall looks
probable especially for St Johns and Flagler counties. All in all,
forecast looks fine with minor changes to POPs, temps, and sky. If
trends continue to look less for showers or storms around JAX
metro northward (which is looking that way now), we may update
again to lower chances rest of today.
Little change in the marine forecast with the winds increasing to
small craft levels for most waters. Winds at 41008 buoy were 21 kt
recently Will need to monitor the southern marine zones for
possible exercise caution headlines.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The frontal zone will stretch from southwest of the area, across
central FL, then extending to the east of the area through Wednesday
night, while high pressure remains centered to the north.
Precipitation chances will continue to be greatest over NE FL.
Elevated coastal winds will continue Tuesday.
Below normal temperatures will prevail this period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The frontal zone will push further south Thursday into Friday, as
high pressure to the north builds more toward the northeast.
Thursday and Friday will largely be dry inland, with greatest
precipitation chances focused toward the NE FL coastal counties.
The high to the northeast will weaken over the weekend, with an
another inverted trough developing over the western Atlantic. Inland
areas will remain largely dry over the weekend, with greatest
precipitation chances near the NE FL coast due to moist onshore
flow. Elevated coastal winds expected Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will continue below normal this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A cold front is moving into the area today from the north, and is
past SSI at 1130z, and will be moving through JAX metro about
12z-14z. Increasing chances of showers and low cigs are expected
at times, mainly in the MVFR range. We can`t rule out an IFR cig
from near JAX north to SSI but felt not high enough to include at
this time. Current IFR cigs over inland southeast GA from Waycross
north may try to drift south but dissipate slowly later this
morning. Occasional showers and potential t-storms will be later
this morning and continue into the afternoon.
The front will bring a surge of gusty northeasterly winds today with
sustained winds peaking around 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
at coastal airfields this afternoon. Some of the low cigs may
break this afternoon for a while but likely move back in later
tonight with a chance of showers overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The area will be between high pressure to the north, and an inverted
trough over the western Atlantic early this week. The gradient
between these two features will result in a surge of winds extending
down the coastal waters. The gradient will relax mid week as the
high and trough weaken. The high will strengthen to the north
northeast late in the week, with troughing to the southeast. Once
again the gradient between these features will will result in
elevated winds.
Rip currents: High Risk of Rip Currents through Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The surge of winds down the coast Today into Tuesday could result in
coastal flooding at the coast, and along the St Johns river and its
tributaries, especially around times of high tide, as the tidal
water becomes trapped. Therefore, a coastal Flood Advisory
has been posted.
After a break Wednesday and Thursday, another surge of winds will
move down the coastal waters Friday into Saturday, once again
producing potential for coastal flooding.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  81  66 /  20  10  30  10
SSI  82  72  80  71 /  50  60  60  40
JAX  85  73  81  71 /  60  60  70  40
SGJ  85  74  83  73 /  80  80  90  60
GNV  87  71  84  70 /  80  50  80  40
OCF  86  73  83  72 /  80  50  90  40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for FLZ124-125-225-233-325-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-470.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ452-472.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion