Eastern New Mexico University New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

710
FXUS65 KABQ 112038
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
238 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 137 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
- Flooding of small creeks, streams. and arroyos, as well as low-
  lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of
  precipitation occur tonight through Tuesday night. The greatest
  flash flood risk will be along and west of the central mountain
  chain as remnant moisture from former Tropical Storm Raymond
  crosses Monday and Monday night. Elevated flows in main stem
  rivers will also possible.
- The latter half of the coming week will feature dry and gusty
  weather.
- A gusty Pacific cold front will cross Thursday and
  Thursday night, with freezing temperatures across north central,
  northwest and west central parts of the forecast area early
  Friday morning and Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Rich subtropical moisture will continue to stream northeastward
over the forecast area tonight through Sunday night. Today`s ABQ
PWAT was the third straight day with a record high value for the
date. PWATs are forecast to vary around 150-250% of normal over
central and southern areas tonight through Sunday night, and there
is general model agreement that precip will favor locations along
and south of I-40 by Sunday. Considered issuing a Flash Flood
Watch for south central and southwest parts of the forecast area
for Sunday and Sunday night, but couldn`t muster enough confidence
given a lack of model consensus on where the heaviest precip will
occur. Will let the evening and night shifts re-evaluate the need
for a Flash Flood Watch later in the weekend as fresh model
guidance arrives. With all the moisture in place, high
temperatures should vary from near to as much as 7 degrees below
30 year averages along and west of the central mountain chain
Sunday, and as much as 10 degrees above average farther east with
a lee side surface trough in place. Otherwise, patchy fog is
likely in western valleys tonight into Sunday morning, and
potentially also again Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
An upper level high pressure system over TX and a low pressure
system dropping southward to the central CA coast will funnel
remnant moisture from former Tropical Storm Raymond northeastward
across the forecast area on Monday and Monday night. Models agree
better for this period that heavier precipitation (roughly in the
0.75-1.75" range) will favor south central and southwest parts of
the forecast area, and potentially also along the west slopes of
the Tusas Mountains, with amounts generally up to 0.75" elsewhere
along and west of the central mountain chain, and mostly under a
half inch farther east. Locally heavier amounts could reach 3 " in
spots along and west of the central mountain chain. Temperatures
will fall near to around 11 degrees below 1991-2020 averages on
Monday, then climb a good 2-9 degrees across the forecast area on
Tuesday. The upper low on the west coast is forecast to exit
northeastward across the Great Basin Tuesday and Tuesday evening,
while a return flow of low level moisture continues across the
forecast area, enabling another round of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop mostly along and east of the
continental divide.
The middle and latter half of the week will feature dry weather
and gusty winds as west and northwest flow aloft strengthen over
the forecast area. High temperatures will continue to trend warmer
on Wednesday, then cool with the arrival of a gusty Pacific cold
front Thursday and Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor the east
slopes of the central mountain chain westward this afternoon. High
res models depict clusters and perhaps a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms marching eastward from the continental divide, across
the central valley, and over the central mountain chain this
afternoon. Scattered to isolated activity is expected areawide this
evening, except for more numerous cells around Glenwood and near the
CO border from Chama westward. Precip is forecast to diminish over
most eastern locations after midnight, while passing showers and a
few thunderstorms continue from the central mountain chain westward.
High res models generally agree on showers moving through the ABQ
metro area again early Sunday morning, although there is less
agreement on precise timing and location.  Also, late tonight until
mid morning Sunday, patchy fog is likely over western valleys. Some
of the stronger showers this afternoon through Sunday morning, as
well as the patchy fog, will be capable of dropping the flight
category to MVFR and IFR at times west of the central mountain
chain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
A wet weather pattern will continue through Tuesday evening, then
dry and gusty weather are expected during the latter half of the
week. South southwest wind gusts may reach 45 mph east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains Wednesday afternoon, then up to 40 mph
east of the Sangres on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  70  53  68  49 /  80  60  20   5
Dulce...........................  62  44  66  36 / 100  80  50  10
Cuba............................  63  48  66  44 /  90  50  50  20
Gallup..........................  67  49  66  44 /  90  50  50  20
El Morro........................  65  49  64  46 /  80  50  60  20
Grants..........................  68  49  68  47 /  80  30  50  20
Quemado.........................  69  49  66  47 /  80  30  50  20
Magdalena.......................  72  53  71  52 /  80  30  50  30
Datil...........................  69  49  67  47 /  80  40  40  30
Reserve.........................  74  51  73  50 /  80  50  50  40
Glenwood........................  79  54  76  53 /  80  70  50  60
Chama...........................  58  41  60  36 /  90  80  50  10
Los Alamos......................  64  51  66  48 /  80  50  30  10
Pecos...........................  65  49  66  44 /  70  40  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  63  48  66  42 /  60  40  20   5
Red River.......................  56  41  57  34 /  60  30  20   5
Angel Fire......................  63  36  61  27 /  60  30  20   5
Taos............................  67  47  68  40 /  60  40  20   5
Mora............................  66  44  68  39 /  60  30  20  10
Espanola........................  70  52  73  47 /  70  50  30  10
Santa Fe........................  66  52  66  49 /  70  40  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  69  50  68  47 /  70  40  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  72  57  71  55 /  70  40  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  74  56  73  55 /  70  40  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  75  55  75  54 /  70  40  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  73  57  73  55 /  70  40  30  20
Belen...........................  77  54  75  52 /  60  40  30  20
Bernalillo......................  74  56  74  53 /  70  40  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  76  53  74  51 /  70  40  40  20
Corrales........................  74  56  75  54 /  70  40  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  76  54  74  53 /  70  40  40  20
Placitas........................  71  54  69  52 /  70  40  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  73  56  73  54 /  70  40  30  20
Socorro.........................  78  57  78  57 /  60  40  50  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  68  50  66  47 /  70  40  30  20
Tijeras.........................  69  52  67  49 /  70  40  30  20
Edgewood........................  71  49  68  45 /  60  40  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  72  47  71  44 /  60  40  20  20
Clines Corners..................  67  50  67  44 /  50  40  20  20
Mountainair.....................  70  52  69  47 /  60  50  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  70  52  69  48 /  50  50  40  40
Carrizozo.......................  75  57  71  55 /  30  50  50  40
Ruidoso.........................  69  54  66  50 /  20  50  50  50
Capulin.........................  71  49  72  39 /  10  20   0   5
Raton...........................  74  47  75  40 /  20  20   0   5
Springer........................  76  49  76  43 /  20  20   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  69  50  70  43 /  40  20   5  10
Clayton.........................  79  57  81  49 /   5  20   0   5
Roy.............................  74  53  76  47 /  10  40   5   5
Conchas.........................  82  57  81  53 /  10  20   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  78  55  76  51 /  20  30  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  82  59  82  51 /  10  20   5  20
Clovis..........................  82  61  81  57 /  10  20  20  30
Portales........................  83  62  82  57 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  81  58  81  55 /  10  30  10  20
Roswell.........................  85  63  82  60 /  10  30  40  40
Picacho.........................  80  58  78  55 /  20  40  40  40
Elk.............................  76  56  75  52 /  10  50  60  50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...11

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion