293 FXUS62 KCHS 192335 AFDCHSArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 735 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through the middle of next week, then a cold front may approach the area.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated showers and thunderstorms across SE GA and SC should dissipate by 9 PM. The rest of the night should feature light to calm winds and thin cloud cover. Dewpoints in the wake of a sea breeze has resulted in dewpoints rising to around 70 across most of the forecast area. As temperatures cool late tonight, dewpoint depressions should narrow to 1 to 3 degrees. Patchy fog should develop during the pre-dawn hours, dissipating during the first hour or two of daylight Saturday morning.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry high pressure will remain centered north of the region through Monday. A weak coastal trough will develop along the GA coast on Monday, with the potential for enough moisture and forcing to support a few showers or thunderstorms in coastal southeast GA during the afternoon. Highs each day will be relatively warm in the mid to upper 80s, except low 90s across far inland areas.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper trough will gradually approach the area from the west during the middle of next week, with a low pressure system possibly moving into the Southeast mid to late week. A cold front could move into the area Thursday or Friday, bringing the next significant chance for rain.
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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 0Z TAFs: The rest of the night should feature light to calm winds and thin cloud cover. Dewpoints in the wake of a sea breeze has resulted in dewpoints rising to around 70 across the terminals. As temperatures cool late tonight, dewpoint depressions should narrow to 1 to 3 degrees. Patchy fog should develop during the pre-dawn hours, dissipating during the first hour or two of daylight Saturday morning. Each TAF will feature TEMPOs from 9-12Z for MVFR fog. A weak sea breeze is timed to push across the terminals by 19Z Sat, winds shifting from the SE around 10 kts.
Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR through Sunday. MVFR ceilings possible around daybreak Monday through Wednesday.
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.MARINE... Through Tonight: The local sea breeze influences along the land/sea interface and across the Charleston Harbor will persist until sunset, then dissipate. Then, onshore winds in the evening are expected to shift to the NE overnight, remaining in the sustained 5-10 kt range. Seas will average 2-3 ft.
Saturday through Tuesday: Expect an increasing northeast gradient Saturday and Sunday as a wedge of high pressure builds inland and a trough of low pressure forms over the eastern Atlantic waters. Conditions are expected to remain just below advisory levels, with winds generally 15-20 knots, with some gusts near 25 knots possible. Seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Monday and Tuesday, winds weaken and eventually turn SE.
Rip Currents: Increasing risk for rip currents expected into this weekend as gusty northeast winds develop between strong high pressure inland, and coastal troughing offshore. Increasing swell from the southeast will also favor a Moderate Risk of rip currents along Georgia beaches by Saturday. Moderate risk forecast for all beaches on Sunday.
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.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Strong northeasterly winds are expected to create larger tidal departures this weekend, which could result in tide levels approaching 7 ft MLLW (minor) in Charleston Harbor starting with the Saturday evening high tide cycle. The risk for minor coastal flooding should continue into early next week. Coastal Flood Advisories could eventually be needed for minor saltwater flooding in Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties.
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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...NED MARINE...JRL
NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion