Egg Harbor New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

499
FXUS61 KPHI 130120
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
920 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will continue to affect the region through
Monday, bringing significant impacts to the coastal areas.
Improving conditions expected by Tuesday as the storm weakens
and moves out to sea. High pressure will begin building back
into the region during the middle to end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 900 PM, the western portion of the rain shield in New Jersey
is slowly expanding westward. Low-level moistening continues
westward as evident by some weak radar returns (drizzle) as
well as significantly lowered cloud bases. A robust easterly
low-level jet at 850 mb continues to lift northward across our
far eastern areas and especially the marine zones. The KDIX
radar velocity data shows an area of 45-55 knots of wind around
2500 feet AGL just offshore of Monmouth and Ocean counties.
This will enhance some lift tonight into Monday morning, and as
a result areas of rain are anticipated to expand farther
westward into Monday morning. The main impacts will continue to
be felt across our coastal communities due to strong/damaging
onshore winds and significant/severe coastal flooding. Wind
gusts along the coast have been as high as 45-59 mph so far.
Otherwise, no changes were made to the wind headlines, with a
High Wind Warning still in place for the immediate coastlines of
New Jersey and Delaware as well as all of Cape May County
through 6 AM Monday. Wind Advisory remains in place for
Monmouth, Ocean, and Atlantic County in NJ outside of the
coastal strip through the same time, with the same being true
for mainland Sussex County, DE.
In terms of rainfall, the forecast continued to trend downward
as a more strung out, double barrel low has developed. Main
concern with this system is the tidal flooding and wind, with
the remaining a limited tertiary threat. So far, 0.50-1.00
inches of rain has fallen along the coast. When we`re all said
and done, the coast will end up with about 2 inches, with around
a half inch to 1.0 inch elsewhere.
In terms of how the timing looks, areas of rain will shift
westward trough tonight and Monday. We start to dry out later
Monday night and transition to a quieter mid-week period.
Winds will be strongest over the next 12 hours or so before dying
down just before daybreak. Monday still will be breezy though
but nothing like today. Gusts inland could get near 30 MPH at
times, with 40 MPH gusts at the immediate coast.
It will be damp and dreary to start the week, with temperatures
Monday in the upper 50s/low 60s. There won`t be much of a drop
overnight with temperatures, as lows will be in the low to mid
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions will improve across the area Tuesday morning as the slow
moving coastal system moves away from our area. Lingering clouds and
a few showers across NJ/DE early will decrease by afternoon.
Increasing amounts of sunshine expected for the afternoon. Dry
weather will be across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure begins to build in. Temperatures will be within a few
degrees of normal Tue/Wed with mostly mid/upper 60s most spots and
lows favoring the low/mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much happening for the long term. Like last week, a large area
of high pressure builds in during the midweek period and slowly
moves away during the weekend. Models are showing a system following
for late next weekend, but since it`s at the edge of our forecast
time range we`ll just mention the slight chance or chance pops for
Sunday attm. Temperatures will be like last week too. Readings will
be below normal Wed night/Thu  then rise to above normal for next
weekend. Normal highs for the Delaware Valley this time of year are
in the mid 60s with lows in the upper 40s. Further north, highs are
normal close to 60 with lows in the upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...MVFR ceilings to eventually IFR. Some rounds of
rain/drizzle will result in visibility restrictions at times.
Northeasterly winds 15-25 knots with gusts 25-35 knots (to 40
knots mainly at KACY). Low confidence.
Monday...MVFR/IFR ceilings. Areas of rain will result in
MVFR/IFR visibilities at times. North-northeast winds 15-20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots, which may diminish some in the
afternoon especially south and east of KPHL. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Monday night...Lower conditions continuing. Improvement N/W
towards morning.
Tuesday...Lower clouds across coastal areas early then VFR
returning. VFR N/W and Delaware Valley areas thru the day.
Tue night thru Friday...VFR expected. Patchy morning fog
possible.
&&
.MARINE...
A Storm Warning is in effect for all Atlantic coastal waters and
lower Delaware Bay through Monday. Wind gusts of 50 kt or higher are
expected especially this afternoon and during the overnight hours.
Seas of 11 to 16 feet are expected. Winds are a bit less on the
Upper Delaware Bay, around 30-40 kt out of the northeast.
Once the Storm Warning expires, a Gale Warning likely will be needed
as 34+ kt wind gusts could continue through Monday Night. Seas
Monday Night of 8 to 12 feet expected.
Outlook...
SCA/low-end Gales continue Tue into Wednesday many areas then lowering
winds and seas into the late week period and continuing Sat.
Showers Tuesday then Fair for Wed thru Sat.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Moderate to major coastal flooding impacts have begun and will
continue through Monday as a coastal storm impacts the region.
Guidance still varies in potential outcomes of this storm with
regard to severity of coastal flood impacts locally, however we
remain very concerned about significant impacts from this storm
along our coasts. The greatest threat of impacts are anticipated
to occur along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware,
and Delaware Bay. While the forecast may change and waffle
between Moderate or Major, the actual flood stage and tide level
will not change much. Regardless of what level the tides hit,
an impactful event is expected and residents should listen to
officials and emergency managers throughout this event. A
Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect through Monday evening.
Widespread minor tidal flooding is expected on the tidal Delaware
River with tonight and Monday night`s high tide, where a Coastal
Flood Advisory is in effect.
Severe beach erosion and dune breaching are quite possible along the
entire New Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches due to the very
high/dangerous surf conditions.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT Monday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ013-020-022-027.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ014-023>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT Monday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for DEZ002>004.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ003.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ430.
     Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AKL
NEAR TERM...Gorse/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Gorse/OHara
MARINE...Hoeflich
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion