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Eight Mile Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

274
FXUS64 KMOB 070006
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 706 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A weak upper Atlantic ridge will build eastward over the Deep South and northern Gulf through Tuesday as the long wave trough passes over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Tuesday night. Several more bands of rain with isolated thunderstorms will continue to move northward over the forecast area through Tuesday. We will continue to have some localized, mainly nuisance type, flooding potential where training of the heavier showers and thunderstorms occur. We are only expecting isolated daytime showers and a storm or two on Wednesday. An upper shortwave is expected to form Wednesday afternoon, generally over Missouri, and move southeastward over our region on Thursday. This will send an associated weak cold front into our area that could become a focus for an increase in showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. The GFS continues to send a line of showers and storms southward into south-central Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Thursday afternoon, so again increased precipitation chances slightly above the NBM PoPs to include a chance of showers and storms. We may need to increase these PoPs further as we get closer to the event. Dry conditions should then prevail through the remainder of the forecast.

Beach Forecast: The rip current risk remains HIGH through Tuesday night with a MODERATE risk expected through midweek. The rip current MOS guidance indicates another bump in the rip current risk to HIGH on Friday for most of our beaches, so updated the afternoon Surf Zone Forecast with this increased high potential. /22

&&

.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Convection continues to drift further inland this evening, allowing for a brief period of VFR and MVFR ceilings to prevail. Showers and storms will likely return to the immediate coastline after midnight leading to brief reductions in ceilings/visibility. Ceilings will fall to IFR and potentially LIFR after midnight and persist through the morning with light easterly winds. 07/mb

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.MARINE... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The winds and seas have lowered below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions. Therefore, the SCA was will be allowed to expire at 1 PM. However, small craft operators should exercise caution over the Gulf. No significant impacts to small craft are expected through Tuesday outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Advisory level conditions are possible late in the week as a front potentially slides across the Gulf. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 85 70 88 68 86 64 81 / 30 50 20 20 10 20 10 0 Pensacola 73 84 73 88 71 86 66 80 / 40 40 10 20 10 20 20 0 Destin 73 86 74 87 72 85 66 80 / 30 20 10 10 10 20 20 0 Evergreen 68 88 69 90 66 86 60 80 / 40 40 20 20 10 30 20 0 Waynesboro 68 86 68 85 63 84 61 79 / 30 30 30 20 0 10 0 0 Camden 68 87 68 87 64 83 60 77 / 30 30 20 20 10 30 10 0 Crestview 69 87 68 89 67 86 61 79 / 40 20 10 20 10 20 20 0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None. &&

$$

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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion

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