Eklutna Lake, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

176
FXAK68 PAFC 270052
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Monday)...
A high amplitude pattern remains in place across the Alaska
region, with a ridge extending from the north Pacific to the
western Bering Sea and a trough across the remainder of Alaska.
There are two dominant features of note in satellite imagery,
an upper level low along the Southwest coast diving southeastward
toward Kodiak Island and the western Gulf and a Hurricane Force
low tracking onshore across Southeast Alaska. Weaker features have
been affecting Southcentral today, with a remnant weak low over
the northern Gulf and showers advecting northwestward across the
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su out ahead of the
approaching Bering trough. Radar imagery at around 240pm shows a
band of steady rain beginning to take shape over southern Cook
Inlet. A short-wave extending from the upper low off the SW coast
extends southeastward across Bristol Bay to around Kodiak Island
and is lifting northward toward Cook Inlet and the Kenai
Peninsula. Thus, expect this area of rain to expand across the
southern and western Kenai Peninsula this afternoon. Meanwhile,
strong and gusty winds have prevailed across the western Gulf,
Kodiak Island, and up into southern Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay
today. These winds have peaked and are beginning to diminish as
the Bering low/trough approach the Gulf.
The forecast is largely on track, though have made some
adjustments to the precipitation forecast for tonight through
Saturday to try to hone in on areas most likely to see rain.
The aforementioned short-wave headed toward the Kenai Peninsula
will stall in its northward movement by late this evening as the
upper low tracks underneath it into the western Gulf and it is
pulled westward around the north side of the low. As a result,
the focus for rain tonight will be the Kenai Peninsula. The rain
will then diminish late tonight through Saturday morning as the
short-wave weakens as it is pulled around the north and west side
of the low center. One trend in some of the mode guidance is to
rotate the eastern end of the short-wave northward across Prince
William Sound. This will bring the likelihood of rain to
Cordova/Valdez areas overnight tonight through Saturday morning.
A quick shot of cold air advection behind the low will bring
another round of strong and gusty winds to the western Gulf and
Kodiak Island on Saturday, so have trended stronger with those
winds.
A surface low will quickly form underneath the upper low in the
Gulf on Saturday. This vertically stacked low will be centered
over the southern Gulf and will slowly exit to the east-southeast
through Monday. Thus, once rain across southern areas of
Southcentral dissipates on Saturday, drier weather settles in for
the remainder of the weekend and into the new work week. Cannot
say for sure that it will be completely dry - as the tail end of
an Arctic trough moves into Southcentral Saturday night into
Sunday. Models are struggling with whether this trough will
progress through Southcentral or weaken overhead. There could be
some showers Saturday night/Sunday, especially over interior
Southcentral. However, chances are most of the region will be dry.
With a cooler air mass settling in, there will be an increased
chance of freezing temperatures. This will be heavily dependent
on cloud cover, as a period of clear skies will ne necessary for
temperatures to reach freezing. For those with gardens and plants
still in place, stay tuned to the forecast this weekend as we
better hone in on the areas most likely to see freezing
temperatures. Right now, Sunday night/Monday morning looks the
most favorable time for at least partial clearing.
-SEB
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts two potent upper-level
waves, one moving across the southeastern Bering and AKPen and a
second, more robust, upper-level low and associated surface low
north of Nunivak Island beginning to dive south into the eastern
Bering.
The first feature, crossing the AKPen as of 3 PM AKDT, is
bringing showers and gusty northwesterly winds to the far eastern
Aleutians and AKPen, as cold air advects in from the north. Gusts
this afternoon are topping out over 40 kt for multiple locations
east of Unalaska.
The second feature will drop south tonight, crossing the AKPen
early Saturday morning. This upper-level trough and associated
surface low will reinforce the cold air advection, leading to a
further steepening of lapse rates and a secondary spike in
northwesterly winds and gusts. The strongest winds will likely
channel through the gaps and passes of the AKpen as well as over
Bristol Bay. The cold air advection will also lead to gusty
northerly winds across Southwest Alaska.
Prior to this intrusion of colder air, precipitation will continue
to wring out along a stalled frontal boundary draped over the
interior Kuskokwim Delta and extending south toward Dillingham and
King Salmon. This front will fall apart as it moves south;
however, areas of rain, and even some snow, will remain likely
through this evening. A weak upper-level wave may move west from
Cook Inlet and along the Alaska Range overnight into early
Saturday morning. This feature may bring an area of snow showers
to places from Lime Village south to King Salmon as it meets up
with the colder air driving south from the main trough farther
west.
Saturday, the ridge currently over the western half of the
Bering will slide east, allowing for both winds and precipitation
chances to slowly diminish through the afternoon and evening hours.
Clearing skies with a northwesterly offshore wind flow will allow
temperatures to drop into the mid to lower 20s as the cold air
remains in place. Some fog may develop overnight Saturday and into
Sunday morning from the Kuskokwim Delta south along the Bristol
Bay coast.
Looking out west, a Kamchatka low pushes into the Western
Aleutians. This low will bring rain and gusty winds to the Western
Aleutians as it makes its way east. Warmer air is associated with
this low due to the southerly flow associated with it. The low`s
front will reach the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern Aleutians by
Sunday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds and rainfall will
affect a wide north-south swath of the eastern Bering. The winds
will not be as strong as the current systems and will be high end
small craft to gale force in strength. It is likely that the
mainland will remain dry as the low takes a southward track by
Monday.
-TM/JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Thursday)...
Broad troughing over the Bering weak high pressure over the Gulf
of Alaska and interior portions of the state will start off the
long term forecast period. Generally, high pressure is expected to
persist over the Gulf of Alaska through Wednesday night of next
week, leading to drier conditions across Southcentral. Moving with
the broader Bering trough will be a pair of shortwaves, one to
the north of the Aleutian Chain and one to the south. Forecast
models have the northern wave lifting through the Bering Strait by
the middle of next week, with the southern wave amplifying into
the southern Bering. Unsettled weather with increased
precipitation chances are forecast for the YK Delta and Kuskokwim
Delta as the region is clipped by both systems. With the
amplification of the southern wave Southwest Alaska will see
increasing shower chances, including potential light snow, as
diffluence aloft overspreads the state and colder air is advected
southward within the mean flow. Conditions begin to change for
Southcentral beyond Wednesday as high pressure breaks down and a
deepening low moves into the northern Gulf. Above normal chances
for precipitation will exist on Thursday as a result.
BL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...The VFR, and occasional MVFR ceilings, that developed this
afternoon will be in and out through the evening. Another area of
rain will develop over the Kenai Peninsula this evening, but it
is uncertain whether it will migrate northward overnight and bring
in a little more rainfall again which would help keep the MVFR
ceilings around into Saturday morning.
&&
$$

NWS AFC Office Area Forecast Discussion