El Dorado, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

707
FXUS63 KICT 230732
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
232 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong/severe storms may linger into the early morning hours today
  in southern/southeast KS.
- Rain chances diminishing from west to east on Wednesday.
- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions Thursday through
  Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A shortwave trough over the Rockies is progged to emerge over the
Central Plains today. Ahead of this feature, a complex of showers
and thunderstorms was ongoing over the Central and Southern Plains.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated during
the morning hours today before the activity gradually shifts
eastward. In the wake of the morning activity, much of the area is
progged to remain weakly capped but we could continue to see some
elevated storms redevelop under the mid/upper trough as we move
through the day. We continue to see anomalous moisture across the
area with PWATs in the 175-200 percent of normal range today before
the column gradually begins to dry out as we move into the overnight
hours. If we see any strong or marginally severe storms this
afternoon they should be confined to far southeast KS where
some modest buoyancy is progged but higher probabilities are
expected to remain further south into eastern OK and AR.
Scattered shwowers and more isolated storms will linger overnight
into early Wednesday before diminishing from west to east late in
the day.
Thu-Sun...A mid/upper ridge is progged to build eastward into the
central CONUS on Thursday and translate slowly eastward through the
upcoming weekend. This will bring dry and tranquil weather to the
Central Plains through the period with seasonably mild
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Did not change much from the 00z routine TAF issuance.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will increase from the west
after about 06-07z tonight, as a strong storm system approaches
slowly from the west. The strongest activity will be capable of
large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall. Covered
this overnight and early Tuesday threat with TEMPO groups at all
TAF sites. As we head into Tuesday, scattered hit-or-miss
showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the region as
the slow-moving upper low approaches from the north. Covered
this threat with PROB30 groups for now, although later shifts
may need to add prevailing or TEMPO groups for TSRA and/or SHRA.
Furthermore, widespread MVFR and possibly patchy IFR ceilings
will prevail from late tonight through much of Tuesday.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ADK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion