Eldred, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

903
FXUS63 KFGF 011730
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued unseasonably warm temperatures thru end of the week.
- Chances for rain increase this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Complex in far northwestern MN that has likely produced some
sub-severe hail is crossing over into Canada currently. Some
cells going up further south over the central RRV where there is
some lingering elevated CAPE. However, effective shear in this
area is weak instead of the 30 to 35 kts over the northern RRV.
At this point, not expecting any cells to get strong enough for
an SPS but will continue to monitor. Winds continue to be breezy
and temperatures warm this afternoon.
UPDATE
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Thunderstorms continue to move through the northern Red River
Valley along warm air advection, weakening as it starts to
outrun the elevated instability. Some additional showers
starting to move into Barnes county as a weak shortwave
approaches, so added isolated mention for this morning and
early afternoon. Adjusted POPs for current trends, but overall
messaging remains the same with unseasonably warm temperatures
continuing.
UPDATE
Issued at 652 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Made a few updates since original forecast. Mostly to up pops in
the band where storms are tracking .... going likely in that
area from NW Griggs thru Nelson to north of Grand Forks. NDAWN
station near Pekin over 2 inches of rain as of around 1130 UTC.
Taking pops northeast as HRRR shows storm cluster moving
northeast toward Roseau area, and as usual HRRR likely
dissipates it too son.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...Synopsis...
500 mb set up currently is an upper low off western British
Columbia coast and an upper ridge centered near Chicago with
ridge to north of Lake Superior. In between we have southerly
flow 500 and 300 mb. There is a weak surface trough with a
surface wind shift (sfc-850 mb trough) that is moving slowly
east and will move into the area late today and this evening.
Out ahead of it though is a 40 kt 850 mb jet which is over
central and eastern ND into Manitoba. This 850 mb jet will
remain in place thru the morning and then turn southwest and
weaken this aftn as surface-850 mb trough moves through. E ND in
area of 850 mb warm advection and a couple hundred j/kg elevated
CAPE. Weak impulses within the upper level flow are aiding in
the development of a small t-storm cluster moving north of
Valley City. This will likely continue moving north-northeast
thru daybreak. Other showers and perhaps weaker t-storms remain
possible other areas as well into the RRV and NW MN thru the
morning. This afternoon things settle down but late aftn/eve a
slight chance of precip exists over NW MN ahead of surface
trough as a ribbon of 500-1000 j/kg MU CAPE is present mainly
northern RRV, far NW MN into Manitoba.
Warm today, though once again areas of clouds present which in
some cases will keep temps from getting as warm as past days.
Still though for most highs today similar to Tuesday with low-
mid 80s.
Thursday will see a break as low level jet and mid level
moisture is east of the area, South winds are less too. 850 m b
temps actually are about the same as Tues and today so maybe 1-2
degrees higher temps on Thursday due to more sun.
Models have gone a slower route with Friday potential front and
rain chance and actually has 850 mb temps over 20C into SE ND
and potential highs around 90 or upper 80s north to the border.
Some slight chances of showers or t-storms occur Friday late and
night north fcst area, but depending on front timing and
location this may be too far south yet.
Saturday will see the cold front slowly slide southeast still in
the mid-upper 80s in west central MN with 70s Devils Lake area.
For Saturday night into Sunday differences exist due to location
of upper level low, trough that will be over the central Rockies
and speed/location of where cold front will be. This tied to
strength of surface low, which GFS is a bit stronger in and
keeps more rain farther west initially Saturday. Either way
trends from ensembles suggest main axis of heavier rain
potential is a tad northwest of where it was earlier...more from
Bismarck area up thru northeast ND and SE Manitoba, far NW
Minnesota where NBM showing 20-30 pct chance of 1 inch or more.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Convection has moved north of
the airports and additional cells this afternoon and tonight are
too isolated to include in the TAFs at this point. Winds will
continue to gust above 30 kts in some locations this afternoon,
then start to settle down a bit around sunset. Winds will start
to come down to less than 10 kts and shift more to a
southwesterly direction, although some low level wind shear will
be possible for a period overnight at the MN airports.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion