Elfin Cove, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

779
FXAK67 PAJK 120555 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
955 PM AKDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.UPDATE...update for 06z taf issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Following the frontal passage pushing eastward
currently over the southern panhandle, are convective showers
enabled by onshore flow as the low continues lingering along the
NW Gulf coast. These showers will bring moderate rainfall with
occasional heavy rates, alongside some more gusty wind conditions
possible as showers move through. Precipitation amounts for the
southern panhandle will quickly fall after the front moves
through, though slight chances still exist through tomorrow for
shower activity. For the central and northern panhandle, which
have already begun seeing some moderate to heavy showers today,
will continue seeing rain showers tonight through tomorrow night,
with between 0.5 and 1 inch expected in the next 24 hours. Though,
there will be some variability in the precipitation amounts
depending on where the heaviest showers impact and due to
orographic effects.
The area that will see the most impacts due to showers tonight
and another wave moving up along the NE Gulf coast tomorrow is
Yakutat, which is expected to see 2 to 3 inches of rain in the
next 24 hours. This amount varies based on the high res model
looked at, with it being associated with showers, but using the
NBM probabilistic data shows an 80 to 90% chance of seeing over 2
inches and a 40 to 60% chance of seeing over 3 inches in 24 hours
through Friday evening, hence going for a higher QPF amount along
the coast. The highest rates will be tomorrow morning into the
afternoon as the next wave pushes up along the coast, with up to
around 0.10 to 0.15 inches per hour possible. For tomorrow and
tomorrow night, the majority of the higher QPF and heavier rain
rates will stay along the NE Gulf coast north of Mt. Edgecumbe.
After looking at the CAPE values expected with these convective
showers, up to around 300J/kg, there will be some slight chances
for isolated thunderstorms developing in the Gulf and up along the
NE coastline. Some may impact Yakutat, Sitka, and Elfin Cove
depending on how far they push inland, but it is unlikely for
anything to push further inland than those coastal locations.
LONG TERM...For the start of Saturday, the rain looks to continue
for parts of the panhandle, specifically for the NE Gulf coast
down towards the outer coast near Cape Spencer and potentially
down to Sitka. There is some uncertainty on the location of this
band of rain so there could be some fluctuations as it gets
closer. Farther south, deterministic models continue to disagree
on the placement of the band of precipitation. Ensembles currently
have the strongest band of rain impacting British Columbia while
places like Ketchikan could see some light rain from this band. As
we head into Sunday, most precipitation is expected to end for
Panhandle with the exception of some potential showers for the NE
Gulf coast during the overnight and early hours Sunday. Elsewhere,
high pressure looks to be over most of the panhandle bringing a
break to the area from the rains and wind seen this week. But this
break will be short lived though as the next system to impact the
area is already expected to move into the Gulf waters. There is
significant disagreement between the GFS and Euro with regards to
placement of the low as well as strength. This is also reflected
somewhat in the ensembles as well with there being a weaker
solution for the time being. Confidence in this low moving into
the Gulf and affecting the Panhandle is high but the expected
impacts is lower due to the disagreement in the models. This is
something that will need to be monitored through the end of the
week and weekend as this system has the potential to bring Gale
force winds to the Gulf waters from Cape Edgecumbe northward.
Besides the wind, ensembles are showing the potential for a good
transport of moisture northward into the Northern and Central
Panhandle. Confidence in this is around a moderate level too but
it is higher than the winds. If the moisture does move into the
area, it has the potential to bring 2-4 inches of rain to the
area. After this system moves through, high pressure returns again
before a low pressure moves into the Bering and Alaskan Peninsula
that looks to potentially impact the area for the middle of next
week. Ensemble agreement and confidence in this are low at the
time as there is disagreement for the time being.
AVIATION...6z taf issuance Light winds, lingering low-level
moisture and clearing behind the front has allowed fog and low
stratus development across the southern panhandle, with MVFR to
IFR vis/cigs possible through early morning. From Sitka on north,
showery conditions continue into Friday, with occasional MVFR
vis/cigs possible through the morning. Conditions across the
region look to improve by tomorrow afternoon, with mainly VFR
conditions expected, except for Yakutat, which looks to see steady
rain and cigs becoming IFR.
MARINE...
Outside Waters: Largely 15 to 20 kt winds continue to impact the
majority of the Gulf, with a few areas of 25 kt winds further
offshore as the low lingers along the NW coastline near Kodiak.
The SE Gulf coastline west of POW is largely 5 to 10 kts and will
stay diminished as a ridge develops over the southern panhandle
and Haida Gwaii after the front moves through. Convective showers
and associated gusty conditions are popping up across the outside
waters and up along the NE Gulf coastline, which are expected to
continue through tomorrow alongside some slight chances for
isolated thunderstorms developing. Winds along the northern and NE
coastline will pick up to 25 to 30 kt as a coastal jet develops.
The remainder of the Gulf will begin to diminish tomorrow into
tomorrow night to only 10 to 15 kt as the low weakens. 9 to 12 ft
seas tonight will diminish into tomorrow, lasting longest along
the NE coast before dropping to 6 to 8 ft by tomorrow night. W
swell of 3 to 5 ft tonight and tomorrow, with a dominant wave
period of 10 to 12 seconds expected.
Inside Waters: Majority of the northern panhandle continues to see
some moderate to fresh breezes (15 to 20 kt) this evening as the
low in the NW Gulf creates a tightened gradient with ridging
developing over the southern panhandle. Northern Lynn Canal will
continue seeing 20 to 25 kt this evening before diminishing
slowly overnight to 15 to 20 kt tomorrow. Grave Point and Scull
Island in Stephens Passage remain at 15 to 20 kt which will
diminish to 10 to 15 kt late tonight. The E-W gradient remains
particularly tightened over Cross Sound and Icy Strait, bringing
largely 15 kt E to SE winds through tomorrow evening before
diminishing into tomorrow night. The southern channels south of
Frederick Sound will remain largely light and under 10 kts
tonight and tomorrow as the ridging develops, and as the next wave
impacts mainly the northern panhandle in terms of wind impacts.
Some gusty conditions may occur following showers as they move
through tonight and tomorrow, largely in the northern and central inner
channels.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Contino
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NWS AJK Office Area Forecast Discussion