Elim, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

566
FXAK69 PAFG 042213
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
213 PM AKDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues as we have an ongoing coastal storm
bringing minor coastal impacts to the West Coast and areas of
rain/snow across Northern Alaska. Alaska Range gap winds will be
gusting upwards of 60 mph today and tomorrow. Isolated to
scattered showers should be expected in the Interior north of
Fairbanks today with more widespread rain in Western Alaska today
through tomorrow. The big story will be a strong coastal storm
Tuesday through Thursday which could bring a wide swath of coastal
impacts including coastal flooding, erosion, wave run up, heavy
rain and strong wind to all of the West Coast and the Western
Arctic Coast.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered showers north of Fairbanks today and
  tomorrow.
- Alaska Range Gap winds gusting up to 65 mph through tomorrow.
- Widespread rain arrives Monday night into Tuesday with the
  potential for some spots to receive over 1 inch.
- Southwest winds may begin to increase Tuesday with gusts to 30
  mph possible, especially in the higher terrain of the Interior.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A coastal storm with minor coastal impacts is moving out of the
  area today, but rain and gusty winds prevail through tonight
  before ending gradually tomorrow.
- A low moves through the Interior on Monday but most of the coast
 stays dry through the early afternoon.
- Late Monday afternoon/evening, a low in the Bering brings its
  initial front to the coast bringing heavy rain and gusty winds.
- This low will rapidly strengthen on Tuesday bringing strong
  southwest wind gust to most of the coastline, potentially as
  high as 70 mph in some spots.
- This can result in widespread coastal impacts including coastal
   flooding and/or significant erosion. More details can be found in
   "coastal hazard potential" section.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Stratus and areas of dense fog on the coast today.
- Light snow and rain in the Western Arctic through Monday
  morning.
- Light snow develops in the Central Brooks Range Sunday morning
  and continues into the evening before ending. More widespread
  snow develops in the Central/Western Brooks Range and North
  Slope Monday night and ends Tuesday night.
- Snow accumulations around 1 inch or less in Anaktuvuk Pass and
   the North Slope, 2 to 5 inches in Atigun Pass and potentially
   upwards of 1 foot in the Western Brooks Range north/east of
   Shungnak.
- Getting a bit into the extended, expect south/southwest winds to
  increase across the North Slope on Wednesday and continue
  through Thursday. Winds shift west/northwest through Thursday
  afternoon with coastal flooding and erosion possible. More
  details can be found in the "coastal hazard potential" section.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A rapidly weakening 985 mb low in the Eastern Bering with a warm
front bringing rain and wind to the coast will continue
transferring its energy northward through tomorrow. This front is
connected with a moisture plume from the North Pacific bringing
precipitable water values of around an inch. A stout ridge
stemming from the North Pacific High settled into the Eastern
Interior this morning bringing chinook flow resulting in
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s this week. We are seeing
the pressure gradient across the Alaska Range increasing this
afternoon and tonight to around 6 to 8 mb. This gradient supports
wind gusts around 55 to 65 mph through tomorrow morning with
gradual weakening through tomorrow afternoon. With 500 mb
shortwaves moving across the AK Range, we will see an
amplification of the gap winds.
On Monday the next low pressure will move into the Southern
Bering Sea. This 990 mb low will rapidly intensify overnight
Monday and by Tuesday afternoon it will be anywhere from the Gulf
of Anadyr to the Bering Strait. There is a lot of uncertainty
with the track and the strength of this system. But EPS and GEFS
are honing in on a track into the Gulf of Anadyr with a low
anywhere from 948 to 973 mb. Nevertheless, a track in this general
area will provide strong southwest flow to much of the West Coast.
With a monster 588 decameter ridge (nearly 3 standard deviations
higher than normal) moving into the Gulf of Alaska, a track
northward to the Chukchi Sea, then east into the Beaufort by
Thursday is reasonable. Based on the strength of the ridge and
ensemble guidance, we are leaning towards a more western solution
for the low track, but if this ridge moves a bit faster east, an
eastern track would still be entirely possible. But, the favored
western solution would produce a long fetch of southwesterly
winds from SW AK to the Bering Strait Region. The one thing we
are confident in is a period of heavy rainfall and strong winds,
potentially gusting upwards of 70 mph Tuesday and Wednesday for
the West Coast. The wind threat decreases significantly about 15
miles inland, but the heavy rain will move into the Western
Interior on Tuesday and Central Interior as early as Tuesday
evening. The north slope will see impacts from this low Wednesday
night through Thursday and this will be highlighted in the
extended forecast.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The low in the Bering Sea will begin to move through the Bering
Strait on Wednesday, leaving behind widespread rain showers for the
West Coast and Interior and snow showers for parts of the North
Slope. Wind gusts as high as 70 mph are possible for the Seward
Peninsula and Western Arctic Coast on Wednesday and gusts as high as
60 mph the eastern Arctic Coast Thursday into Friday. Highest
precipitation totals for the entire event will range between 1.00-
1.50".
On Thursday, there will be scattered rain/snow showers on the North
Slope and widespread rain showers for the Western Interior that will
travel eastward throughout the day, transitioning to more snow
showers. Precipitation totals again ranging as high as 1 inch.
Another low moves into the Western Bering Sea on Friday. While this
low is expected to remain just east of the Kamchatka Peninsula in
Russia, there will be multiple shortwave features that will rotate
around the low. These shortwave features will bring chances for
gusty winds and light to moderate rain to the West Coast.
&&
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 through 5...
Coastal Flood Watches have been issued from Utqiagvik to Hooper
Bay. While some places won`t see "warning level flooding" there is
a chance for significant impacts in all of these spots and
every community along the coast. Details below.
A major storm with widespread coastal impacts is becoming more
likely. The aforementioned low in the Bering on Tuesday is looking
to bring a long fetch of southwest wind from SW AK to the Chukchi
Sea. Wind gusts may be as high as 70 mph in spots. Preliminary
water level rises (subject to change) above the normal high tide
line look to be anywhere from 3 to 11 feet with the highest in the
Eastern Norton Sound (Unalakleet to Koyuk). There is a lot of
uncertainty with how high the water will get, but this is looking
more and more like a significant coastal concern. The Arctic Coast
will also get a piece of this storm Wednesday and Thursday as it
enters the Chukchi Sea and moves east into the Beaufort. Winds
will begin from the southwest with potential peak gusts up to 60
to 70 mph along the NW Arctic Coast Wednesday afternoon. Then we
see the winds turn west-northwest on Thursday with widespread wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph along the entire Arctic Coast. Much more
uncertainty lies in this area, especially with water levels, but
preliminary rises (subject to change) seem to be from 2 to 4 feet
above the normal high tide line.
We are expecting significant erosion for many along the coast
with coastal flooding likely, especially in more vulnerable
locations. Preparations should be made for a strong coastal storm
everywhere along the coast as most, if not all communities will
see some sort of impact.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ801>803-815>818.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847-849.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ820>822-824-825-827.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ821-822.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>806-852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-808-811-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-817-854>857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-859-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Bianco

NWS afg Office Area Forecast Discussion