Elizabeth Lake California Weather Forecast Discussion

869
FXUS66 KLOX 090607
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1107 PM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...08/1239 PM.
High temperatures will remain near normal the remainder of the
week as a low pressure system moves into northern California.
Hurricane Priscilla may send showers and thunderstorms into Los
Angeles County Thursday into early Friday. Dry and seasonable
weather is expected over the weekend, but there is a chance of
rain early next week as a storm system drops out of Canada.
&&
.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...08/803 PM.
***UPDATE***
The current forecast has a great grasp on potential convection for
Thursday and Friday, so no changes were made in the way of
thunderstorms and rain chances. High resolution models continue
to show potential convection flirting with the southern and
eastern edge of Los Angeles County, particularly in the eastern
San Gabriels as early as late morning Thursday. Late thursday
night through Friday, showers and possible thunderstorms may begin
to drift slightly west in the LA County. Although confidence is
fairly high in rain totals across LA County remaining below a
quarter of an inch and hourly rates remaining below one tenth of
an inch, there is a low risk (5-10% chance) for isolated rates of
a quarter to a half inch per hour. Another concern would be
potential fire starts due to dry lightning strikes, especially
from the onset of convection Thursday into Thursday evening as
most of the moisture is at higher elevations.
Tonight through Friday night, southerly flow with wind gusts up
to 35 mph will continue across the San Gabriels and the northern
Ventura County mountains. Windy north to northwest winds will
impact portions of the forecast area Friday night through late
Saturday night with gusts in the 20-35 mph range, highest across
southwest Santa Barbara County, the Antelope Valley, and the I-5
Corridor.
***From Previous Discussion***
The primary focus of the forecast remains the potential impacts
from the remnants of Priscilla as it continues to weaken and move
up the Baja coast. It`s expected to move inland somewhere over
central Baja, then track north-northeast into Arizona. This puts
LA County at the far western periphery of any potential weather
impacts, and there are certainly a number of model solutions that
keep all impacts east of the county. But should there be enough of
a western component any impacts locally are expected to be fairly
minor. The earliest possible impacts would be late Thursday
morning and afternoon in extreme southern LA County and off the
coast of Orange County, including Catalina Island as some of the
outer bands of Priscilla work their way up the coast, with shower
and thunderstorm chances (10-20%) continuing Thursday night into
early Friday.
High based moisture will initially make it difficult for rain to
reach the surface so showers are expected be on the lighter side
and brief as any bands coming up the coast should be moving
rapidly to the north northeast. Lightning may be the most
significant risk factor with this system as the limited rain at
the surface could result in fire starts from any lightning
strikes. As mentioned, the latest models have trended a little
farther east with the system but can`t rule out some isolated
strikes in LA County, particularly the eastern half.
Most of the high res model solutions keep rainfall totals in LA
County well under a quarter inch. The eastern San Gabriel
Mountains would have the highest risk of heavier rain due to the
higher elevation and added parcel uplift from the topography so
anyone near the Bridge scar should be paying close attention to
the weather. Most areas will see either little to no rain or just
a brief moderate shower, but there is a 5-10% chance of a heavy
shower that could create some localized flooding. All impacts from
the storm are expected to be east of LA County by Friday evening
with dry and near normal temperatures expected over the weekend.
For the rest of the area (Ventura, Santa Barbara, and SLO
Counties), the Thursday-Saturday forecast for SLO/SBA/VTA
counties is pretty straight forward. Minimal marine layer stratus
is expected at least through Friday and skies will be at most
partly cloudy with temperatures near to slightly below normal.
May see increasing night and morning low clouds and fog returning
over the weekend.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...08/212 PM.
Another day of dry weather Sunday but likely cooler as an
approaching weather system will increase onshore flow and there
may be some areas of morning low clouds and fog.
An upper low will drop out of Canada early next week that has the
potential (60-70%) to bring rain to the entire area later Monday
into early Wednesday. Lots of uncertainty with this one (timing
and amounts) as there is an AR component to this system, though
based on the latest AR forecast from cw3e, all of the official IVT
solutions stay well below AR levels across southern California.
And to that end, most of the ensemble rain amounts are under an
inch, and under a half inch in LA/Ventura Counties so the AR is
not expected south of the Bay Area. The low is also approaching
straight from the north rather than off the Pacific Ocean which is
typically not as favorable a trajectory for heavy rain locally,
although there are some model solutions that push the low far
enough west to allow for some moisture entrainment. In short, a
high chance of rain, 60-70% sometime between late Monday and
Wednesday, but very low confidence on amounts.
&&
.AVIATION...09/0605Z.
At 0513Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 4500 feet with a temperature of 18 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, & KWJF.
Low confidence in TAFs for KPRB and KSBP due to low certainty of
low clouds tonight. There is a chance for VFR conds to prevail at
KPRB (30%) and KSBP (40%).
Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. There is a 20%
chance for MVFR cigs tonight, with best chances at LA County
coastal sites. 10-20% chance for -TSRA at KLAX, KLGB, KSMO, KBUR,
and KVNY as early as 17Z and continuing through the period. Any
rain and tstms will be periodic with large breaks possible,
however, any tstm is capable of producing gusty and erratic winds,
brief downpours, and frequent lightning.
Light to moderate turbulence in possible over the LA and Ventura
County mountains through the period, but especially over the San
Gabriel Mountains through 18Z Thu.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of
BKN015-030 cigs from 08Z to 16Z Thursday. 15-20% chance for -TSRA
as early as 17Z continuing through the period. No significant
east wind component expected, unless a tstm develops.
KBUR...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. 10% chance for -TSRA
after 20Z Thu.
&&
.MARINE...08/655 PM.
Across the outer waters and nearshore along the Central Coast,
conditions are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
criteria through Thursday. Isolated gusts near SCA levels are
possible south of Point Conception Thursday evening, and winds are
expected to reach SCA levels Thursday night into Friday morning
generally south of Point Conception. Friday through the weekend,
SCA winds are likely to become widespread, with a 30% chance of
GALES south of Point Conception on Friday evening into Saturday
morning, increasing to a 40-50% chance Saturday afternoon and
evening. Seas are likely to become choppy & significant wave
heights will be near 10 ft over the weekend into Monday.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions should
generally remain below SCA criteria during the overnight to
morning hours, but winds are expected to trend stronger this
evening through the weekend. Isolated gusts approaching SCA
levels are possible near Point Dume and across the San Pedro
Channel this evening, and there is a 60% chance for localized SCA
level gusts Thursday evening. There is a moderate to high chance
for SCA level winds Friday & Saturday, with highest chances across
the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel, including a 20%
chance of GALES on Saturday. Seas likely to become choppy during
this time.
Moisture from Tropical Storm Priscilla will move northward
bringing a slight chance (10-15%) of showers and thunderstorms
for the inner coastal waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange
Counties Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. A marine
weather statement will likely be issued for PZZ655 valid this
time period. However, there is a 30% chance that the system stays
further east limiting the threat.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Lewis
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Black/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion