Elizaville New York Weather Forecast Discussion

804
FXUS61 KALY 120717
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
317 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds increase along with the chances for widespread
rain as a coastal storm tracks northward along the East Coast today.
Rain begins this afternoon and continues through Monday with breezy
to locally gusty winds. Dry conditions return Tuesday and remain
largely in place through the end of the week and into at least the
first half of the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
- A coastal storm system will bring breezy to locally gusty
   winds and widespread rainfall to eastern New York and western
   New England beginning this afternoon through Monday.
- Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5" to 1.25" are anticipated
   across much of the region with locally higher amounts of 1.5"
   to 2.0" in the Eastern Catskills and portions of western New
   England.
- Maximum wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph in the Eastern Catskills,
   Mid- Hudson Valley, and western New England could lead to
   isolated power outages.
Discussion:
Infrared satellite imagery shows clouds spreading into the
region from south to north as moisture surges northward ahead of
a deepening, surface coastal low currently situated just off the
coast of South Carolina. Aloft, a weakening cutoff low remains
stationary just to our west, generating a localized patch of
showers over portions of Central New York and the Southern Tier
while we remain dry courtesy of high pressure to the northeast.
However, our hours of persistent dryness are numbered as chances
for rain will increase throughout the day courtesy of the
impending coastal system. Confidence in the evolution of this
storm has continued to increase as high resolution,
deterministic model solutions and ensemble scenarios have shown
consistent alignment over their last several iterations.
Throughout the day today, the upper-level cutoff low to our west
will become enveloped into a large-scale trough encompassing
the East Coast as the upper-low associated with the surface
coastal system weakens into an open wave in the deep Southeast.
Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave and vorticity maximum embedded
within the mean flow of this trough, about the northeast
periphery of the weakening low, will trigger a surface response
in the development of a secondary coastal low to the northeast
of the primary which will remain relatively close to the coast
of the Carolinas. This secondary low will be the cause of our
anticipated wet, windy conditions from this afternoon through
Monday.
Winds will become breezy beginning late this morning/early this
afternoon resulting from the increasing pressure gradient and
strengthening LLJ ahead of the advancing low. Moisture- rich
air will be advected into the region by way of northeasterly
flow within the inverted trough that will precede the core of
the coastal low as isentropic lift increases from south to north
this afternoon. Initially, rainfall rates within the stratiform
rain shield look to be on the lighter side due to the northeast
orientation of the low`s warm conveyer belt and our westward
position relative to its deformation zone. However, as the low
is steered closer to the Mid-Atlantic and Long Island Coasts
tonight by a building high in the southwest Atlantic; northeast-
extending ridge in the Midwest; and westward-expanding high
over the Canadian Maritimes, consistent moisture advection will
intersect an axis of strengthening isentropic lift and
frontogenesis in the divergent zone of an anticyclonically
curved LLJ to enhance vertical ascent and increase rainfall
rates. This will be especially true in the Eastern Catskills,
Mid-Hudson Valley, and southwest New England where this axis of
best forcing will reside and where orographic enhancement will
translate already moderate rates into locally embedded heavy
downpours.
Rain continues into Monday, remaining locally moderate to heavy
especially in the higher terrain regions of the Eastern
Catskills, Litchfield Hills, and Berkshires throughout the
morning with winds remaining elevated to locally gusty.
However, as the coastal low begins to weaken and drift back
south Monday afternoon, rain will begin to taper off and become
more showery in nature. These showers look to linger into Monday
night, decreasing in spatial spread from west to east through
Tuesday morning as the coastal low departs farther to the
southeast. When all is said and done, rainfall totals across
eastern New York and western New England will range largely from
0.5" to 1.25". However, localized enhancement of vertical
ascent and subsequent heavier downpours will lead to isolated
higher amounts ranging from 1.5" to 2.5" in the Eastern
Catskills and portions of western New England. Now, it is
certainly possible that localized higher amounts be recorded
elsewhere should the axis of best forcing shift in the event
that the coastal low reaches farther north than currently
projected. However, confidence is fairly high in the locations
of the higher totals at this time given the favored flow
direction for upslope enhancement and localized downsloping in
some of the lower-lying areas of the Hudson Valley. Regardless,
the areas where we anticipate the highest rainfall amounts are
those that have not received as much rain as other areas in our
last two widespread rainfall events. That said, all of the rain
that we will receive in this event will be beneficial and should
not post any flooding concerns. We could see some tidal
flooding on the Hudson River near Poughkeepsie, but that is yet
to be seen. See the Hydro section of this discussion for
additional details on this.
By Tuesday afternoon, dry conditions will largely be
in place regionwide once again as high pressure slides into the
region in the wake of the departing coastal system. Largely dry
conditions will remain in place through Tuesday night, though an
isolated shower or two could reach the Southwest Adirondacks as
a cold front makes its passage through the region. However, with
little in the way of moisture associated with this front,
additional rainfall amounts will be very minimal.
Today`s highs will primarily span the mid 50s to mid 60s with
isolated low 50s at the highest peaks of our higher terrain
regions. Tomorrow will be cooler with highs in the upper 40s to
upper 50s before we rebound back into the mid/upper 50s to mid
60s Tuesday. Lows throughout the short term period will be
fairly similar with tonight and Monday night`s values primarily
in the 40s with pockets of upper 30s at higher elevations and
near 50 in the Mid-Hudson Valley. We will cool off just a bit
Tuesday night, however, as lows dip down into the mid/upper 30s
to upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The remainder of the week will remain dry as high pressure
dominates the region. Behind Tuesday night`s cold front,
temperatures will fall a bit below normal with highs Wednesday
and Tuesday largely in the 40s and 50s and lows in the upper 20s
to 30s. However, Friday will begin a slight warming trend back
towards normal with highs largely in the upper 40s to upper 50s
and lows widely in the 30s.
Saturday could hold our next chance for precipitation as a
shortwave trough looks to rotate through the region ahead of an
approaching frontal system, but there is a considerable amount
of uncertainty in this element of the forecast due to an overall
lack of consensus in the medium to long-range guidance. For now,
maintained the output of the NBM that gave slight chance to
chance PoPs across much of the region. Highs Saturday will be in
the mid 50s to mid 60s with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A coastal low will be impacting the region through the TAF period.
IR satellite imagery already shows widespread low and mid level
clouds associated with the storm system across southern areas, with
bkn-ovc cigs at KPOU and KPSF. Some MVFR cigs have already been
occurring at KPSF and this should continue through the rest of the
overnight hours.  KPOU may stay VFR for most of the night, but some
MVFR cigs are possible towards daybreak or shortly after sunrise.
Further north, KALB is on the border of this cloud cover, with more
clear skies towards KGFL.  With the clearing, KGFL has been seeing
some radiational fog and the potential for this will continue
through the rest of the overnight, with occasional IFR visibility at
times within fog.  Meanwhile, some passing cloud cover, along with a
light breeze, should prevent any fog at KALB and will keep flying
conditions VFR with sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft.
On Sunday morning, flying conditions will be mainly MVFR at KPOU and
KPSF and VFR for KALB/KGFL.  While it should be dry to start the
day, steady light rainfall will be moving in from south to north for
late in the day and into Sunday night, especially for KPSF and KPOU.
 MVFR visibility within light rain is expected at KPOU and KPSF
after 20z and some IFR (mainly for ceilings) can`t be ruled out at
KPSF on Sunday night as the rain become steadier and heavier.  Some
MVFR ceilings may eventually spread towards KALB by Sunday evening
into Sunday night, although KGFL may be far enough north to stay
VFR.  All sites will be seeing rainfall on Sunday night.
North to northeast winds will be 5-10 kts through the rest of the
overnight hours.  They will increase to around 10-12 kts through the
day on Sunday with some higher gusts to around 20 kts, mainly for
KPSF and KPOU.  These winds winds will continue into Sunday night as
well.  2 kft will be around 40 kts from a southeasterly direction,
although surface winds should be strong enough to help prevent
LLWS.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement for Bennington and Windham counties
Sunday 8 AM to 2 PM. Relative humidity values are as low as 60
percent. Wind gusts range between 20 and 30 mph. High
temperatures range in the 50s. Rain shower activity increases
after noon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low will track close to the the NJ and Long Island
Coast Sunday through Monday. Minor tidal flooding may occur in
the Mid-Hudson Valley from Kingston south to Poughkeepsie late
Sunday through Monday. The latest NERFC forecast for the Hudson
River near Poughkeepsie is projecting minor tidal flooding
Sunday afternoon and early evening and again on Monday afternoon
and early evening.
Monitor the latest river forecasts on the NWPS page at
https:/water.noaa.gov/area/ALY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...27
FIRE WEATHER...05
HYDROLOGY...05

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion