Elk Grove Village Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

076
FXUS63 KLOT 152016
AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
316 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of showers and possible thunderstorms expected late
  Friday night through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Through Thursday Night:
A mid-level baroclinic zone continues to reside over the area
this afternoon with a modest upper jet parked over MI. As a
result, some broad ascent remains overhead which has continued
to generate an axis of light showers and drizzle across portions
of northern and northwestern IL. With a pocket of drier air
being noted across central IL it is possible that the ongoing
showers/drizzle near the Mississippi River dissipate prior to
reaching the southern half of our area later this
afternoon/evening. Given the modest forcing and moisture present
have opted to keep a 20% chance for showers in the forecast
through the evening along and west of a Rockford to Rensselaer
line for this potential.
Heading into tonight, an upper ridge will build into the area
which should allow the aforementioned showers/drizzle to
dissipate. However, moisture trapped beneath the ridge does look
to keep cloud cover around through the night and into Thursday
morning. So expect temperatures to remain generally in the lower
to middle 50s tonight before rebounding back into the mid-60s
to around 70 Thursday afternoon as clouds decrease. That said, a
shortwave disturbance is expected to round the ridge Thursday
afternoon which may result in another bought of
showers/sprinkles. Since this wave should remain in southern WI
suspect northern IL will stay dry, but a stray sprinkle cannot
be ruled out near the IL-WI line Thursday evening.
Friday through Wednesday:
The aforementioned ridge will remain over the Great Lakes on
Friday resulting in another dry day for us. Winds will also be
out of the southeast which should allow temperatures to warm
nicely into the mid to upper 70s (possibly near 80 west of
I-39). That said, wind speeds will be rather breezy as a
organizing weather system inches close so expect gusts in the
20-25 mph range Friday afternoon.
While we enjoy another warm October day, the broad trough
currently over the western CONUS will begin to eject into the
central Plains and Upper Midwest Friday and Friday night. At the
same time, a cold front is forecast to swing into northern IL
late Friday night into Saturday. With the breezy south-southeast
winds ahead of the front, moisture should increase ahead of the
front and be sufficient to yield a period of showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms as the front traverses across the
area on Saturday.
As the front begins to exit, a rather amplified shortwave
trough is forecast to dig into the base of the broader trough
over the Great Lakes late Saturday resulting in the development
of a low pressure center somewhere along the frontal boundary
stretching from Lower MI to central MO. Guidance remains in
somewhat good agreement that the low may develop overhead and
cause a reinforcement of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms
for Saturday night into Sunday, but uncertainty remains on where
exactly the front is when the low forms which could push the
greatest coverage of storms and highest rainfall amounts east of
our area. Regardless, it does appear that a healthy soaking of
rain is in store for this weekend with most areas forecast to
pick up around 0.5 inches of rain with the potential for some to
get an inch or more if the low forms overhead. In addition to
the rain, the developing low will also result in a period of
gusty west-northwest winds Saturday into Sunday where gusts in
excess of 30 mph are possible.
The low and associated trough are forecast to pivot east of the
area Sunday night which will allow for another dry day on
Monday. Though, temperatures behind this system will be more
typical for late October with highs in the 60s and lows in the
40s Monday through the middle of next week. Another system looks
to pivot through the area during the Tuesday into Wednesday
time frame but uncertainty remains as to how strong the system
will be. Therefore, there is a chance the rain coverage could be
impacted as finer details emerge. For now have maintained the
20-30% POPs areawide for this period which seems reasonable at
this range.
Yack
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Main Concern:
- Lower ceiling trends through tonight.
While the period of 2-3SM VSBY in light rain and BR has come to
an end at ORD and MDW, IFR CIGs (600-700 ft) remain in place
for the time being. Given that the guidance didn`t handle this
morning`s low CIGs well, held onto prevailing MVFR CIGs through
tonight and also temporary higher-end IFR mention through mid-
late this afternoon. It certainly remains possible that
prevailing VFR conditions return sooner than indicated in the
TAFs, and plan to adjust as needed with otherwise quiet flying
conditions in store. Outside of CIG trends, a few showers may
clip RFD through the mid afternoon today.
Expect east and northeast winds today and tonight at generally
less than 10 kt, shifting to east-southeast Thursday morning.
Castro
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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