Elkader City Park, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

275
FXUS63 KARX 190538
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with
  increasing coverage Friday afternoon/evening and again on
  Saturday and Sunday during the afternoons.
- Warmer temperatures continue today with highs mainly in the
  80s, then drop into the 70s through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Shower and Storm Chances Through the Weekend:
As an upper level low continues to sit over the northern Plains
through Friday, a ridge is off to our east. Then the low moves off
to the northeast towards the Upper Midwest as the ridge shifts off
to the east. The low lingers over the Upper Midwest through Sunday.
Between today and Sunday, several shortwaves will move through the
area and bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances. While
these waves will bring the highest chances of rain, with PWATs
mainly between 1.25 and 1.5" and enough lift present outside of
these individual waves, convection could form anywhere in the CWA
through the weekend (mostly 15 to 30% at any given time). The main
potential hazard with these storms would be localized heavy rainfall
as the HREF LPMM has pockets of 1.5 to 2" of rain over the next 48
hours. While a strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, it
is unlikely that they would form. It would depend on how much
clearing takes place during the daytime hours (which is not expected
given the amount of cloud cover) and if destabilization occurs.
There is also limited instability as MLCAPE values of up to 1500
J/kg will be possible.
Rain Potential Early Next Week:
Heading into early next week, a low moves down from Canada into the
central Plains. There is a shortwave that comes into the area ahead
of the low on Monday that brings low end PoPs (20 to 30%) to
portions of the CWA. Ensemble guidance shows the trough over the
central CONUS early next week however there are differences in
location and intensity, as well as how long this trough sticks
around for. If a scenario where the low is closer to our CWA, rain
chances would increase, however if the low is further south, which
ensembles at this moment in time favor, then a drier solution would
be more likely.
Temperatures Through Midweek:
Today will be the warmest day with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Over the next few days as the low passes by, slightly cooler
air moves in and as a result, high temperatures will stay in the low
to mid 70s. With the trough moving over the central US next week,
temperatures are expected to stay in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
MVFR to IFR ceilings should develop overnight as moisture
streams into the region. A few showers may also occur, primarily
west of the Mississippi. Moving ahead, while conditions should
largely become VFR during the day, additional showers are likely
(60-70%) during the afternoon and evening, primarily along and
east of the Mississippi. That said, there is some chance
(25-40%) for thunderstorms areawide, including at RST/LSE, so
have included these in PROB30 groups. Exact timing of both SHRA
and TSRA remains uncertain, so amendments may become needed
overnight and throughout the day Friday.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Ferguson

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion