Elkton, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

062
FXUS66 KMFR 062118
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
218 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Overview:
Items of interest include the thunderstorm chances today and
tomorrow followed by a notable cooler airmass next week with several
days of rain chances. In fact, it will feel much more like October
next week with well below normal temperatures. Monday has the
potential for wetting rains across mainly westside areas with
widespread showers anticipated. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out
next week, but we are not expecting widespread severe weather. Rain
chances continue through Friday, with each subsequent day after
Monday posing less chances for both rain and rainfall amounts.
Lastly, there will be smoke across the area, especially westside
areas from nearby wildfires. An Air Quality Alert is in effect for
eastern portions of Douglas County until Sunday evening.
Further Details:
A broad area of cyclonic rotation is noted over the Pacific. This H5
low is progged to kick out a couple small areas of PVA over the
forecast area this weekend. This will result in convection each
afternoon. Between today and Sunday, today will pose the higher
risk for thunderstorm activity/coverage, mainly across westside
areas as we go through peak heating. Sunday will be more isolated
and mainly across areas near Crater Lake and northern parts of
both Klamath and Lake counties.
Today`s convective initiation may be enhanced slightly as some
areas may reach convective temperatures which will time out well
with the incoming PVA aloft. H3 jet stream should help maintain
thunderstorms through this evening. Some HiRes guidance is
suggesting convection could last into the overnight hours.
Forecast soundings are showing low-end mid-level instability
(100-200 J/kg) which could help increase these chances overnight.
In other words, it shouldn`t be a surprise to see thunderstorm
activity lasting through about 2am. Douglas County appears to have
the best chance for these nocturnal thunderstorms tonight.
Moving ahead to Monday, the aforementioned low pressure system will
start to move inland, bringing widespread rainfall chances to the
forecast area. This cool weather pattern will likely bring
stratiform rain with isolated embedded thunder. A very fall-like
pattern is shaping up to start on Monday. Nearly every single
member from both the GFS and European ensemble suite is showing
rainfall for Medford/Rogue Valley. In fact, this is the case for
many westside areas where rainfall amounts could be around
0.25-0.75 for most areas. This type of rainfall is more typical
for October, but should be a welcoming experience, especially
those areas dealing with wildfire suppression.
After Monday, rainfall chances continue but generally decrease each
subsequent day as the low pressure system meanders over the forecast
area. Temperatures will remain very mild for this time of year, and
its not until Thursday until we start seeing more widespread highs
back in the 80s. Through this stretch, isolated areas of thunder are
expected but showers should be more prevalent versus convective
thunderstorm activity.
-Guerrero
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...
MVFR levels continue along the Oregon coast and into the Umpqua
Valley under a persisting marine stratus layer. MVFR levels look
to rebuild along the Oregon coast this evening, while possible
thunderstorm activity over the Umpqua Valley this afternoon and
evening brings some uncertainty to overnight flight levels. VFR
conditions are expected, but MVFR ceilings may rebuild in the
Umpqua Valley.
Inland ares look to remain under generally VFR levels. Smoke has
brought MVFR visibilities to the Medford terminal, but conditions
should clear early this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances are also
present over Medford as well as along the Cascades and other west
side areas this afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms may
continue into the night, but activity should be absent by Sunday
morning.
-TAD
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, September 6, 2025...
Sub-advisory conditions will persist through next week. Low
pressure edges closer today resulting in light south winds, low
seas, marine fog, drizzle, and low clouds. Despite an uptick in
southerly winds Sunday into Monday, expect generally calm
conditions with no significant swell; however, widespread showers
are expected Monday and Tuesday as the low pressure moves inland.
Winds turn northerly Tuesday into Wednesday but remain on the
lighter side.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, September 6, 2025...
A Red Flag Warning is in place for Fire Weather Zones 616, 617,
620, 621, 622, and 623 from 2 PM through 11 PM tonight. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected along the Cascades and
over west side areas this afternoon and tonight. Isolated activity
is also possible over western Siskiyou County as well as over
northernmost Lake and Klamath Counties. Some isolated activity may
also continue into nighttime hours or early Sunday morning.
Southerly winds aloft look to guide any storms that develop
northward. While rain showers may be a part of tonight`s
thunderstorms, this motion may prevent rainfall accumulation in an
area while lightning continues. Gusty outflow winds will also be
a possibility with these thunderstorms, which may trigger
additional development.
For Sunday afternoon and evening, thunderstorm chances are
limited to eastern Douglas and northern Klamath and Lake Counties.
Drier air limits development to the east, while instability looks
to be lacking to the west. A pattern change to an upper trough
remains in the forecast for Monday, with cool temperatures and
widespread chances of rain showers. These conditions may continue
into midweek, with signs of additional rain showers for next
weekend.
-TAD
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ616-617-
     620>623.
CA...PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion