Ella Lake Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

212
FXUS63 KDLH 141700
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A gradual warming trend is expected this week, with above
  normal temperatures expected by Thursday and Friday.
- Light rain showers possible across our south this evening and
  overnight.
- Widespread chances for precipitation return Thursday and last
  into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
A ridge of high pressure settles over the Northland today, and
while normally we would be looking at quiet and dry weather,
that is not going to happen today. The upper level pattern has a
large low pressure system over the southwestern CONUS, feeding
moisture and periodic shortwaves in our direction today through
at least Wednesday. Today that moisture will be gradually
pushing into the Northland, and only then will we finally get
some showers into the southwestern portions of the forecast area
this afternoon. We currently have some chance to even likely
pops by late this afternoon around Brainerd, but considering how
dry the sounding from KINL at 00z was, would not be surprised
if this moves in a little slower than what we have in the
forecast right now. This precipitation will likely not make it
to the ground at the onset of precipitation as the dry low level
air will only lead to virga. Any accumulations overnight
tonight will be light, less than a tenth of an inch, and only
over the southern third or so of the forecast area. The warm,
moist air advection will continue through Wednesday into
Thursday, as the upper level trough pulls out of the southern
Rockies and pushes northeast across the plains and pushing into
Manitoba on Friday. With this, there will be another push of
precipitation moving across the Northland beginning Wednesday
night, continuing through Thursday, then tapering off to
scattered showers Friday, which linger through the weekend.
While temperatures will remain cool today with the increasing
clouds, the warm air advection will bring a warming trend
through the rest of the work week, with highs by Friday in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures cool off for the weekend with
the upper low now to the northeast and northwest flow bringing
cooler air back into the area. High pressure builds back into
the area for early next week, keeping temperatures near normal.
Precipitation chances should return by the middle of the week,
depending on how quickly the next upper level trough pushes into
the area. Confidence in the timing of precipitation is quite
low at this point, with some pretty large differences between
models.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions expected through this evening at all terminals. There
could be some light rain that impacts BRD, DLH, and HYR this
evening, but is not expected to lead to appreciable visibility
limitations. BRD and HYR could see some MVFR ceilings overnight into
Wednesday morning. Expect mostly light and variable winds.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
A ridge of high pressure building into the area today will
cause winds to become generally light at 5 to 10 knots for
today, generally out of the north to northeast. Tonight rain
shower chances slip in from the southwest, but no lightning or
thunder is expected. East winds continue for Wednesday, at
generally 5 to 10 knots. Waves through Wednesday night will
remain generally 1 foot or less. The high pressure ridge slides
off to the east later in the week, allowing winds to pick up out
of the south to southeast by Thursday. A warm front will bring
another round of showers to most of the lake during the day on
Thursday, with precipitation chances lingering through Friday
night.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...LE

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion