Ellenboro, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

871
FXUS62 KGSP 301102
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
702 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A moist easterly flow of moisture will continue thru midday, but
should gradually end later today as Imelda moves off to the east
toward Bermuda. From tonight onward, dry high pressure ridging
down from the northeast will control our weather, bringing cooler
temperatures for Thursday and Friday, but normal temperatures and
fair weather for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 6:15 AM EDT Tuesday: Sct clusters of light to moderate showers
continue to slowly drift westward across our NC zones this morning,
with little precip activity elsewhere over our CWA. Over the next
few hours, some of this activity is expected to spread into the SC
Upstate, but it`s looking like little precip will reach the western
Upstate. This is largely due to the broad sfc high centered well to
our north supporting a weak, wedge-like configuration over our area.
Aloft, the trof axis just to our west supports a decent leeside jet
streak which is helping to stream mid to upper level clouds over our
area in association with Tropical Storm Imelda. Imelda is currently
located north of the Bahamas and is helping to advect in better mois-
ture as the coastal front retrogrades towards our area. The overall
stable airmass should keep rainfall rates on the lighter side, which
should diminish any flooding potential. The extensive cloud cover
will help keep morning lows about 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
Otherwise, Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to start tracking E/
NE this afternoon as it induces the Fujiwhara Effect with Hurricane
Humberto to its NNE. Deeper low-level subsidence begins to cutoff
the moist Atlantic Fetch as a result, while overall upper forcing
begins to weaken as well. This should result in decreasing shower
coverage as the day progresses. Nonetheless, most of the latest
near-term/CAM guidance still has an uptick in shower coverage over
the NC mountains and foothills this afternoon. Model profiles also
depict small amounts of sfc-based instability over the higher ter-
rain, so a few isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. Some of
the latest CAMs continue to generate showers over portions of our
CWA well into the evening, but this is probably overdone and we
should be mostly dry by 00z Wed. Overall, no excessive rainfall
is expected for our area. Afternoon high temps will be dependent
on how much the cloud cover can scatter out, but most of our CWA
will likely remain bkn to ovc for most of the day keeping highs 4
to 8 degrees below normal with the exception of the Upper Savannah
and Little TN Valley where less cloud cover could lead to near-normal
temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1201 AM EDT Tuesday: By daybreak Wednesday, the threat of
Imelda should be a fading memory as that system moves away to the
east well out over the Atlantic. What is left behind over much
of the area east of the MS River will be a slowly evolving rex
blocking pattern aloft. The upper anticyclone will drift slowly
east across the Midwest while the weak upper low will drift slowly
west across the Deep South, with our region in-between and under a
relatively deep E/NE flow. The pattern supports a parent sfc high
ridging down from the northeast with the high center moving from
Quebec to the southern New England Coast starting on Wednesday
and continuing thru at least Friday. Profiles start out relatively
stable and the static stability only goes up from there thru the
end of the work week as a formidable subsidence inversion builds
across the region. This will effectively put the fcst area under
a dry cold air damming wedge, with a breezy northeast wind each
day. Fortunately, there should be enough residual moisture to keep
afternoon RH from bottoming out and causing problems. Temps look
normal for Wednesday as the wedge air mass doesn`t get established
until late in the day, but with cold/dry advection taking hold
Wednesday night, high temps for Thursday and Friday should be
on the order of five degrees below normal. Elevations above 6K
feet might not get out of the low/mid 50s. Low temps look close
to normal still Wednesday night, but also about five under climo
for Thursday night. The summit of Mt Mitchell will flirt with 32F
at daybreak Friday. Autumn will definitely be here.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Tuesday: Nothing controversial in the medium
range...just more fair early Autumn weather for the weekend as
the rex blocking pattern devolves as the upper high and low dance
around each other. By Saturday, the upper anticyclone should migrate
to the Mid-Atlantic region while the upper low moves to AR/LA/MS,
then both slowly fill thereafter. The pattern supports a weakening
sfc high drifting down along the coast of southern New England to
the Mid-Atlantic and still controlling our weather through at least
the weekend, and possibly all the way thru Tuesday. The cold air
damming wedge weakens over the weekend, but never really goes away
in the GFS solution, especially as some moisture returns from the
south over the top and results in some light rain chances Monday
and Tuesday. The air mass should slowly modify back to normal over
the weekend and stay there.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Sct light showers continue to move across
the fcst area from the east this morning. Most of the activity is
still confined to the NC Piedmont and foothills, but some of these
showers will likely spread further west over the next few hours.
Most sites are reporting either IFR or low-end MVFR cigs within
this moist regime. There are fewer visby restrictions, but a hand-
ful of terminals are reporting MVFR visby. The low cigs will likely
persist into the afternoon with most sites not likely to see VFR-
level cigs until this evening. While visby should remain MVFR or
better thru the morning, it could drop lower in any heavier showers.
We could another round of showers later this morning/early after-
noon, but the timing still remains fairly uncertain. As such, I
have VCSH at most sites thru the afternoon and into the early
evening. After that, any lingering showers should be few and far
between. Winds will remain NELY thru the taf period with speeds
around 9 to 12 kts thru the afternoon with some intermittent low-
end gusts in the 18 to 22 kt range. Speeds will taper off later
this evening.
Outlook: Drying high pressure is expected to spread over the
region from the north on Wednesday and linger into the weekend.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail, with the exception of patchy
early morning fog and low stratus in the mtn valleys each day.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPT

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion