Ellsworth, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

915
FXUS63 KILX 051506
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1006 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An Elevated Fire Risk is in place along and north of a
  Jacksonville to Danville line today. Burning is highly
  discouraged due to dry fuels, low relative humidity values, and
  southerly winds gusting over 20mph.
- A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to
  central Illinois Monday into Tuesday night. Significant drought
  improvement is not expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Made minor adjustments to today`s humidity forecast based on 12Z
ILX morning sounding which slightly exceeded the dryness of most
high-resolution model guidance, hinting that with daytime mixing
we could see dewpoints dropping close to 45 degrees from around
Lincoln northward this afternoon, however southerly flow will also
help transport subtly higher moisture air northward into the area
by the time of peak mixing this afternoon. This should all result
in RH dipping into the upper 20s from I-72 northward, and mainly
30s to the south, just a few percent lower than the overnight
forecast package. Otherwise, forecast seems on track, with
unseasonably warm highs in the mid 80s, breezy southerly winds
gusting 20 to 30 mph (highest north of I-72), and minimal cloud
cover (mainly scattered high clouds). The HDWI index indicates
these dry and breezy conditions will result in the peak of
weather-induced fire danger we`ve seen recently, reaching between
the 75th and 90th percentile of climatological conditions for this
time of year.
37
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
As we sit in between the high and low pressure systems, the strong
pressure gradient will cause stronger wind gusts again today. Today
there is a 30-60% chance of wind gusts greater than 30 mph west of I-
55. Wind gusts around 20-25 mph areawide the whole day are likely.
These higher wind gusts could cause some blowing dust, limiting
visibilities locally, where fields are being harvested.
Enhanced fire danger is expected again today due to these breezier
winds and low RHs. RH values bottom out around 25-35%. The SPC
has north of I-72 outlooked on day 1 of the Fire Weather outlook
for enhanced fire danger. Use caution with anything that could
ignite a fire and be mindful of the burn bans already in place.
Burning is highly discouraged again today. Field fires, as we have
seen the last few days, are a possibility today from the hot farm
equipment as harvesting activities continue.
A cold front will move through the forecast area Monday into
Tuesday, bringing chances for rain and cooler temperatures. The
strong southerly winds will help moisture return as we go into
Monday. The moisture return will influence some showers and
thunderstorms Monday (20-40% chance), ahead of the cold front.
Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of showers and thunderstorms with
the passage of the cold front. QPF is showing 0.5-1 inch south of I-
70 and less than 0.5 inch north of I-70. Some locally higher amounts
are possible where a heftier thunderstorm may pass through.
Highs will continue to be in the upper 80s to near 90 through
Monday. Normal for this time of the year is in the low 70s for
highs. Behind the cold front Tuesday, temperatures will cool into
the low to mid 70s for highs before warming back into the low 80s
for the weekend. Wednesday will be the coolest day we have seen in
quite awhile, with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 40s.
Copple
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the 12z TAF period. A brief
period of lowered clouds (~5000 ft) could pass over SPI/PIA this
morning, otherwise primarily clear skies expected today. Winds out
of the south pick up late this morning, with gusts around 20-25
knots. Winds decrease by sunset, but there is a 20-50% chance of
wind gusts around 30 mph before 06z. Left out of the TAF for now
because of the low confidence, may need to be added later.
Copple
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion